As we rush headlong toward the end of 2011, I would like to ask the inconvenient question: “ Are things getting better or worse?” This is a question on which very few people agree. A downturn in unemployment and big crowds on Black Friday have Wall Street believing things are getting better.

A European debt crisis that refuses to go away has others convinced things are getting worse. The occupy protesters say things are getting much worse; while record farm income and rising land prices suggest things are getting better.

So, with carols that sing of peace and goodwill playing, let us pull a chair close to the fire, pour a glass of eggnog, and consider this question in greater depth.

I got an e-mail from my investment advisor last week with the subject line “Investors are back on the job.” The message was an article written by a Senior Equity Analyst. He stated that U.S. job growth “remained healthy.” He cited, as proof, the drop in unemployment to 8.5 percent – the lowest level in 32 months. This was the interpretation the media put on the jobs number, and the stock market rallied the following day.

The problem is that the drop in unemployment did not represent an increase in the number of people working. The decline came as a result of fewer people looking for work.

When people give up and stop seeking a job, they are no longer counted by the Labor Department as unemployed. So, rather than showing an improvement, the lower jobs figure revealed that there are more Americans who have decided to sit on their bums and watch TV rather than look for a job.

Another false positive in the economy is the Black Friday event. Actually, Black Friday now starts on Thursday and has been combined with Cyber Monday.

Our flat-screen televisions were filled with stories of consumers rushing away from the Thanksgiving table to stand in line outside Wal-Mart.

This whole phenomenon was contrived by big-box retailers to create a false sense of shopping hysteria.

The media joined in to turn the day after, and now the hours after, Thanksgiving into something akin to a religious experience. Watching these images, investors rallied the market in the belief that happy days were here again.

According to the National Retail Federation, 2011’s Black Friday led to a sales increase of 16 percent, while the average shopper spent almost $35 more on Black Friday than the prior year. But other data shows big Black Friday sales may be more indicative of a poor economy than an improving one.

A survey of consumers indicated that over a third of U.S. shoppers have already finished their holiday shopping for the year. This could be a predictor of sluggish holiday sales for the rest of the year.

So while it is tempting during this holiday season to feel optimistic about the economy, the reality is that, despite the propaganda you see in the news and hear from our political leaders, we are ending the year in about the same shape as we began the year.

This despite the hundreds of billions of dollars that have been printed and dumped into the economy and the massive bailouts given to the banking and housing industry.

The debt crisis in Europe, portrayed as a negative economic factor, actually has had some positive impacts for the United States. Europe is a major competitor on food and agricultural products. Their economic crisis, along with a weak U.S. dollar, has led to record U.S. farm exports. More exports mean good farm prices and jobs here in the United States.

So as you ponder the state of our economy and perhaps your economy, don’t get sucked into believing things are getting better. They are not, and a lot of tough decisions and hard work are ahead.

What is truly discouraging, however, is that our current federal leadership seems unable and unwilling to make the tough choices and put in the hard work it will take to get our economy growing again.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Gary Truitt may write to him in care of this publication.