USDA’s December World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates didn’t change U.S. corn production, but did increase predicted foreign corn production by 336 million bushels. USDA lowered their midpoint forecast of the marketing year average price of corn by 30 cents to $6.40 per bushel. They lowered their midpoint estimate of soybean meal price by $30 to $295 per ton.

USDA is now predicting that 2012 U.S. pork production will be up 1.7 percent from this year. They are predicting 2012 beef production will be down 4.6 percent, broiler production down 2.1 percent and turkey production up 0.7 percent. Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2012 is expected to be down 1.7 percent compared to this year.

Given a typical 0.9 percent increase in the U.S. population, per capita meat supplies should be tight enough to allow hog prices to hold steady despite an increase in production. USDA is forecasting the average live price for barrows and gilts will average $66.32 per cwt. this year and somewhere between $63 per cwt. and $68 per cwt. in 2012.

Hog prices were slightly lower this week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $81.42 per cwt., down $1.02 from last Friday. The Friday morning average price for both the Western Corn Belt and Iowa-Minnesota was $83.44 per cwt. The Eastern Corn Belt averaged $80.75 per cwt. 

Friday’s top live hog price at Peoria was $57 per cwt. Zumbrota, Minn.’s top was $58 per cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs was $59.25 per cwt., down 75 cents from the previous Friday.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $89.92 per cwt., up 62 cents from the previous Thursday. Loins, bellies and butts were higher. Hams were lower. Hog prices are 90.5 percent of cutout, a bit high for this time of year.

Hog slaughter totaled 2.33 million head this week, down 1.3 percent from the week before and up 3.9 percent compared to the same week last year. Barrow and gilt carcass weights for the week ending Nov. 26 averaged 206 pounds, up one pound from the week before and the same as a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts last week averaged 276.2 pounds, up 0.2 pound from the week before and up 0.6 pound compared to last year.

Total pork production this week is estimated at 484.7 million pounds, up 4 percent from the same week last year. Year-to-date pork production is up 1.2 percent. Seasonally, pork production typically declines and hog prices rise once we pass mid December.

Today’s close for the December lean hog futures contract, $85.40 per cwt., was down 85 cents from last Friday. The February lean hog futures contract settled at $86.42 per cwt., down $2.80 from the previous Friday. 

April lost $3.27 this week to settle at $88.75 per cwt. June hogs ended the week at $95.47 per cwt.

The December corn futures contract ended the week at $5.855 per bushel, down 1 cent from the week before. May corn futures closed at $6.03 today.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.