By ANN HINCH Associate Editor
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — With a large, young population and a growing number of people with more purchasing power, Vietnam could be U.S. agriculture’s next big opportunity in finished meat sales and livestock feed.
In the nearly half of U.S. farmers in their fifties or older, the word “Vietnam” likely stirs memories of being in or watching armed conflict on the news. Jim Call, International Marketing vice chair for the United Soybean Board (USB) and an enthusiastic proponent of trade with the country, recognizes the dichotomy.
“The only memories I have of Vietnam then (upon graduating in 1972) was the draft card in my pocket,” he told a crowd of fellow farmers at last week’s annual Commodity Classic in Nashville. The USB, with other commodity groups and export councils, has been working with Vietnam to improve trade relations between the two nations. One of the biggest opportunities for trade growth, he said, is in animal agriculture.
“Without that industry, obviously our grain prices would suffer,” said Call, a Minnesota grower, who added part of the way Vietnam is growing so fast is because it has a long coastline with several ports for trade.
Mark Jagels, vice chair of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), said his group’s primary target is the growing middle class in developing nations. The objective is to increase demand for beef, lamb and pork products, and he said U.S. beef and pork are both growing in favor among the Vietnamese.
Since 2005, he said beef has gained 108 percent in consumption, and pork, 17.3 percent; this means the average Vietnamese eats 14.3 pounds of beef per year now and 48.4 pounds of pork. Last year, U.S. beef exports to Vietnam were up 3 percent over the previous year – and pork was up 16 percent.
There is high interest among chefs in Vietnam to learn about cuts of meat and preparation; Jagels explained the USMEF has hosted educational events there and been part of trade shows that have drawn attendance well in excess of expectations.
This is down to some critical concurrent factors; at 90 million people, Vietnam has a rapidly growing population thanks to more than half of it being under the age of 25 (and nearly half of that is under the age of 15, according to Roy Bardole, chair of the U.S. Soybean Export Council). Jagels said this means a population willing to try new products and methods.
There are also two notable sectors of rising wealth and purchasing power in Vietnam, he said. One is made up of Viet Kieu, or ethnic Vietnamese who live outside the country; he said many were refugees who fled the country after 1975 and are returning with increased wealth. The other is made up of cash-rich former farmers who sold their land.
Sales of food, alcohol and mass grocery retail items all jumped by double-digit percentages in 2011 – even Japan is building retail in Vietnam, Jagels said. Because the retail sector is still developing, he said the USMEF is placing a high emphasis on food safety in training and education efforts there.
Another problem the country faces with respect to trade is a problem it is combating with food-and-mouth disease, which has infected more than 150,000 Vietnamese cattle since November 2010.
On the U.S. side, Jagels said there are limitations on exports of “white offal” of beef and pork to Vietnam; also, there are still difficulties for exporters trying to register with its central government to sell there.
Vietnam livestock needs But it’s not just finished meat U.S. farmers may sell to Vietnam. For the past few years, the news for growers – especially of soybeans and lately, corn – has been focused on China and the needs of its growing middle class and livestock sector. Thomas Dorr, president and CEO of the U.S. Grains Council (USGC), said last week, however, “This is not an all-China story.”
Other Eastern locales are also growing quickly. Most notable, said Dorr, is India, whose population is projected to surpass China’s by 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Since 1990, he said more than 300 million households worldwide have attained middle-class status in terms of wealth – and that is expected to double by 2020.
Because of limited land, water and other natural resources, he said U.S. producers are at a precipitous time to position themselves to supply this growing sector with food and feed. Vietnam is about 20 years behind China on the development curve, Dorr added, “but I suggest it won’t take them the same 20 years to catch up.”
Right now, according to USGC, U.S. grain exports are plateauing while South American exports are steadily increasing. Dorr said he expects U.S. exports to increase again as more food – and feed – is needed worldwide. He described events as being “on the cusp of a global change” in food supply.
Imports of corn into Vietnam in 2010 was at 1.7 million metric tons, far higher than the USGC had projected earlier. The country is the eighth-largest market for U.S. foodstuffs in the world, and the No. 1 market for distillers dried grains in Southeast Asia (No. 4 globally), said Dorr.
Corn isn’t the only potential winner for exports. Vietnam’s central government is supportive of a thriving aquaculture industry, which requires a growing supply of fish feed. Vietnam is, in fact, the No. 3 producer of global aquaculture, said Bardole (and No. 6 in pork). “We don’t even begin to understand yet how important aquaculture is going to be … to the soybean industry,” he noted.
He has found in his travels that many foreign farmers would rather buy raw products and do the processing on their home turf – such as the Vietnamese buying soybeans, rather than soy meal, and crushing and formulating feed there.
Now, the country is still the third-largest soy meal market in the world, since Bardole said land is limited; two counties in Iowa can produce more soybeans than Vietnam. But, they’re “going from a soy meal market to a soy bean market. They want to add value in their own economy,” he said, adding the country already has two crush facilities, including one owned by Bunge.
To meet growing demand, he and Dorr both believe the United States needs to put a priority on financing improvements to ports to accept huge cargo ships such as the Panamax, which can hold far more containers than current ships those ports are deep enough to accommodate. |