STANTON, Mich. — Work at Anderson and Girls Orchard in Stanton is a month ahead of schedule.

“Usually we don’t start spraying until April 15 or 20, and we started spraying on (March 21),” said owner Terry Anderson. “We figured we had another month to trim apple trees, but we don’t – we’re going to have to move on to other things.”

On the heels of one of the mildest winters in history, Michigan experienced record-high temperatures during the first three weeks of March, topping out in the mid- to high 80s. The month ended with a “cool down,” which dropped daytime temperatures back in the 60-degree range – temperatures weather forecasters said were about 15 degrees above average for this time of year.

Forecasts through next week call for temperatures dipping into the upper 20s and lower 30s, which could be devastating for the state’s fruit crop.

Those 80-degree temperatures, Anderson said, put his fruit crop about one month ahead of normal years, and he’s concerned about crop damage if the area is hit by frost.

“We can get a lot of frosty nights between now and May. If it doesn’t get cold again, it will be okay, but this is Michigan weather we’re talking about,” he said. “Pretty much we figure when stuff comes early, it’ll get frozen later. We usually don’t think we’re safe from the threat of frost until after Memorial Day.”

Michigan Farm Bureau (MFB) horticulture specialist Ken Nye said farmers are being faced with a lot of what-ifs this year. “We’re at a very vulnerable stage at this point because of the mild winter and early warm-up,” he said.

Prematurely developing fruit tree buds are particularly susceptible to late frosts and freezes. Under similar circumstances a couple of years ago, the state’s cherry crop took a 90 percent hit from a late freeze. It’s a scenario Antrim County fruit grower Vince Cooper remembers well.

“We lost most of our cherry crop two years ago,” he said. “We harvested a few from the high spots in some of our orchards, but the quality wasn’t the best. They had blemishes on them – they weren’t the nicest-looking.”

Cooper and his family grow 100 acres of fruit, primarily cherries and apples, near Elk Rapids. They sell the fruit at their market, Farmer White’s, and to wholesalers.

He said this year’s growing season is 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule in his area, and it’s likely cherries will be in bloom in the next few days.

He said if the orchards are hit by a hard frost now, it could wipe out most of his crop again this year. With Michigan leading the nation in tart cherry production and ranking No. 4 for sweet cherries, a major weather event could take its toll on the market, too.

“Right now we’re in full bud swell here, which means there’s a little pocket of air around the bud that acts like an insulator. If it frosts now, we stand a better chance of them surviving it,” he said. “Once they go into bloom, there’s nothing surrounding the cherry. If the temperature goes below 32 degrees, they’re basically done.”

Cooper said his apple crop is just as far ahead of schedule, and it’s time to start spraying for scab, other diseases and pests.

MFB Commodity and Marketing Manager Bob Boehm said the relative lack of extreme cold temperatures for a prolonged period this winter also raises the likelihood of pests – both bugs and weeds – surviving through winter and potentially threatening crops earlier than normal and in greater numbers.

“We rely on that frozen ground in mid-winter to kill off a lot of pests,” Boehm said. “We haven’t seen much of that this season.”

In addition to causing crop loss, Cooper said late-season frost may damage the fruit, which can make it more susceptible to diseases and pests. “We run the risk of not having a crop at all or having a crop that is not good quality,” he said. “At this point, we’re just wondering how much we should put into the crop.”

Joe Woods, another Antrim County producer, said his cherries are close to blooming, too. He estimates they are 4-6 weeks ahead of normal.

“If we get a mild frost, where we can move air through the orchard, we can keep the damage to a minimum,” he said. “But a hard freeze affects the outer blossoms more and it will affect our overall crop.”