By KEVIN WALKER Michigan Correspondent
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. — The Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) hosted a press conference last week that featured analysis from Dennis Cajigas of the Zaner Group. It was triggered by the release of Statistics Canada’s Principal Field Crops March 2012 Intentions report. Notable news out of the report seems to be canola.
“We’re seeing a bit of a build there in acres, about 20.4 million acres being seeded,” Cajigas said. “That actually did come in a little bit under expectations ... The gain came there largely in Saskatchewan, that gained about 10 percent in acres.”
Cajigas said soybeans came in slightly higher than last year. The report indicates an increase of 3.6 percent from 2011 to March 2012 intentions. In 2011, 3.8 million acres were planted to soybeans, against expectations of about 3.9 million this season.
He also said all wheat came in higher than expectations. He described the situation with durum as a bit of an increase there, as well.
Regarding corn, Cajigas said about 3.5 million acres is what Canada is reporting. According to the report, March 2012 intentions for corn represent an increase of 18.4 percent from 2011.
Shawn Hackett of Florida, a market analyst and publisher of the The Hackett Money Flow Report, said, “Soybeans and canola have increased so dramatically. The market wants U.S. and Canadian farmers to plant a couple million acres more of soybeans and canola.”
He stated a frost in Argentina has further hurt its soybean crop, and that the crop was already going to be small. “It was a harder freeze than was expected,” he said. “We’ll need to plant even more acres than was expected. They’re going to keep the price up to make sure the U.S. and Canadian farmer plants enough acreage, then it’s likely there will be a correction.”
The report describes the acreage for canola as a possible record, up 8 percent or 1.5 million acres from the previous record of 18.9 million acres, which was set in 2011. “This would be the sixth consecutive annual record in canola area at the national level,” the report stated.
The increase is driven by Saskatchewan, where farmers are expecting to increase their canola acreage 9.9 percent, to 10.8 million acres. Farmers in Manitoba are expecting to plant more canola as well, after a flood last year hit the crop hard. They now intend to seed 3.3 million acres in canola, a 19.3 percent increase from 2011.
For corn, Cajigas said the biggest surprise was Ontario, where farmers are expecting to seed a record 2.24 million acres of corn from grain, up 335,000 acres or 17.6 percent from last year. That would set a new record, breaking the previous one of 2.17 million acres, set in 1981.
For oats, March 2012 intentions indicate nearly 3.4 million Canadian acres will be seeded, representing a 9.1 percent increase from 2011. But Hackett said the situation for oats is worse than what’s indicated in the report. |