MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. — Late in August, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange hosted a conference call with analyst Bruce Burnett from the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) on the latest Statistics Canada data.

The figures are July estimates of production of principle field crops. The latest estimate for total wheat – a combination of spring, durum and winter wheat – is 27 million metric tons (MMT). Most of that is spring wheat, at 19 MMT. Durum wheat is 4.2 MMT and winter wheat, 3.6, MMT.

“If you look at this from a wheat perspective, this is what we were expecting,” Burnett said.

In fact, that’s what he thought about most of the latest numbers. He described production as a whole as a “very good, solid crop in western Canada this year. In terms of expectations, this report is right down the line. This is right in the heart of analysts’ estimates.”

Other figures were canola at 15.4 MMT, corn for grain at 11.7 MMT, barley at 9.5 MMT, soybeans at 4.4 MMT, oats at 2.9 MMT, dry field peas at 2.9 MMT, flaxseed at 547,000 metric tons, and fall rye at 312,000 metric tons. “Barley yields (were) not a record,” Burnett stated.

He said there was concern about late-season wetness and that plantings were reduced because of it. He said this wouldn’t have been captured in the previous Statistics Canada report at the end of June.

“So we did get some glimpses on that today, they did increase their summer-fall acreage by 750,000 acres, maybe a little less than I expected, but certainly in the right direction,” he stated.

According to Burnett, the CWB calculates spring wheat harvest was about 15 percent complete as of the beginning of last week. He said the next report, in October, will most likely have a lot of harvest numbers in them.

Shawn Hackett, a grains analyst and financial advisor based in Florida, said Canada had too much wet weather the past couple of years, but things are looking good this year. “Crops in Canada overall are in much better shape than the U.S.,” he said. “We’ll take whatever good news we can get.”

Canada doesn’t grow that much corn, Hackett said; its main crops are wheat, canola and pulse crops.

“Nothing really pops out at me that’s really a shock here,” said Karl Setzer, a grains analyst at MaxYield Cooperative and Farm World’s Markets columnist. “We’re up on canola production. What I’m seeing is a trend. All wheat has held steady in Canada. We’re seeing an increase in production of all grains in Canada.”

But, not in flaxseed; that has been cut in half from previous harvests, he stated. Setzer thinks flaxseed is being replaced by canola, in all likelihood. He added there’s not enough production in Canada to “shake anything up” in terms of world grain supplies.

The big thing going on right now, he said, is the drought in the Black Sea. “Just about everybody in the Black Sea region is talking about losses in wheat,” he said.

On the plus side for world grain production, Setzer said Australia is “looking at a huge wheat crop.” Although Russia’s wheat crop is smaller than average, it’s not small enough that the country is planning on restricting exports at this time, he stated.