By TIM THORNBERRY Kentucky Correspondent
FRANKFORT, Ky. — As harvest time draws near – or in the case of some crops, has arrived – growers are getting a better idea of how they fared during one of the worse droughts in decades. The latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) projections were released last week and the news for the most part is not good, but farmers already knew that. There are, however, a couple of bright spots.
In Kentucky, the grape and tobacco crops have done well but, traditionally, these are dry-weather crops. As of Sept.1, the state’s burley tobacco projections stood at 140.6 million pounds, up 4 percent from August and 10 percent above 2011.
For all burley-producing states, the news was much the same. NASS projections call for a total of 194.5 million pounds, up 5 percent from the previous month and 13 percent above last year. Dennis Walter, a grape producer in northern Kentucky, said they are generally grown in more arid locations and thinks it could be somewhat of a banner year for his crop.
“Grapes are a droughty crop to an extent, and the vines are in relatively good shape,” he said. “We should have a pretty good harvest. We’ve been fortunate.”
Corn still down Corn growers weren’t so lucky. While the NASS report noted a slight increase in yield projections from August, the overall picture is still pretty bleak.
The Kentucky production forecast stood at 104.3 million bushels, up 8 percent from the August forecast but 42 percent below 2011 production levels. Yield projections were 70 bushels per acre, up five bushels from the August forecast but well below the 2011 yield of 139.
Nationally, the news isn’t quite as bad, but losses are still projected. “U.S. corn production was forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast and down 13 percent from 2011,” according to NASS. If those numbers hold, this will mark the lowest production since 2006.
In Kentucky, if yield projections remain the same, this will be the lowest since 1983’s crop of 48 bushels per acre.
The abundance of rain in July, along with steady rainfall from Tropical Depression Isaac, has brought the September soybean projections up but overall, the crop is still expected to be noticeably off from last year. The NASS report noted a 17 percent increase in forecast production over August numbers, at nearly 47 million bushels in Kentucky. But that is still 19 percent below 2011. Yield estimates stood at 34 bushels, just five off from last year. The big number for soybeans in Kentucky is the number of harvested acres, which is down 100,000 from 2011.
Those state numbers are similar to the national forecast. Production was forecast at 2.63 billion bushels, down 2 percent from August and down 14 percent from last year, according to NASS.
Numbers in other states
The Indiana corn crop is expected to be off by 28 percent from last year’s nearly 840 million bushels. This year’s is forecast at 605 million bushels.
The outlook for soybeans in the Hoosier State isn’t much better. The crop is expected to be 184.6 million bushels, down 22 percent from the 238.1 million bushels of 2011.
The latest Illinois corn projections placed it at 1.39 billion bushels, a decline of 29 percent from last year. Soybean production in that state is expected to be 309 million, with yield projected to be at 37 bushels per acre.
Tennessee received plentiful rainfall in August, which brought up yield prospects for most crops. The soybean crop is expected to be 40 million bushels, about the same as last year. The number of acres planted this year, however, is up 40,000 over 2011 levels. Burley tobacco is looking favorable, with projected production to be over 30 million pounds, an increase of 35 percent from 2011.
While Tennessee cotton is looking good for the most part, expected production is off from last year. NASS reported cotton production is projected to be 590,000 bales, down 27 percent from last year’s 813,000, with yields forecast to average 755 pounds per acre, down 41 from the previous year. Producers expect to harvest 375,000 acres, down 115,000 from 2011.
The news for Tennessee corn is still bad. The crop production is forecast at 75.7 million bushels, down 21 percent from 2011. Yields are expected to average 87 bushels per acre, down significantly from 131 bushels per acre in 2011.
These look to be the lowest corn numbers in that state in 20 years. Michigan crop projections are similar to the rest of the region. Corn yields are expected to be 114 bushels per acre, down 39 from 2011. Soybean production is forecast at 73.6 million bushels, a decrease of 14 percent from last year.
Sugar beets look to be the exception, with a projected yield of 28 tons per acre, up 4 from 2011. |