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Farrow-to-finish operations profitable 7 months running

By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook
 
The average price of pork at retail during October was $3.973 per pound. That is 5.4 cents higher than the month before, but 17.6 cents lower than in October 2014. The October average pork price in grocery stores was the highest since January.
The average price for 51-52 percent lean hogs during October was $52.68 per cwt. live. That was $1.04 higher than in September, but $22.56 lower than in October 2014.
Calculations by Lee Schulz at Iowa State University estimate the average cost of production for barrows and gilts sold during October at $61.70 per cwt. of carcass ($46.27 per cwt. live). Dr. Schulz’s calculations give the lowest breakeven hog price since March 2007. He estimated profit at $13.97 per hog marketed in October, making it the seventh consecutive profitable month for Iowa farrow to finish operations.
The national negotiated carcass price Thursday (Nov. 19) for hogs to be delivered to the slaughter plant was $49.63 per cwt., down $1.70 from a week earlier.
The national negotiated barrow and gilt price on the morning report Nov. 20 was $48.06 per cwt., down $2.63 from the previous Friday morning. Both the Western Corn Belt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $50.11 per cwt. on the morning of Nov. 20. There was no negotiated price quote that morning for the Eastern Corn Belt.
Peoria had a top live price Friday of $30 per cwt., unchanged from the previous Friday. The top price Nov. 20 for interior Missouri live hogs was $31.50 per cwt., down $1.50 from the previous Friday.
The morning pork cutout value Friday, Nov. 20, was $74.00 per cwt. FOB the plants. That is up 96 cents from the week before with loins, hams and bellies all higher. Friday morning’s national negotiated hog price was a miniscule 64.9 percent of the cutout value.
Last week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.4 million head, up 0.5 percent from the previous week and up 7.0 percent from the same week last year. This is the largest weekly hog slaughter since the week ending on Sept. 22, 2012.
The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 283.7 pounds, down 0.6 pound from a week earlier and down 1.0 pound from a year ago. This was the 34th consecutive week with weights lighter than last year.
Year-to-date hog slaughter is up 7.9 percent, but because of lighter slaughter weights, year-to-date pork production is up only 7.1 percent.
The December lean hog futures contract settled Friday at $57.45 per cwt., up $2.65 for the week. February hog futures ended last week at $58.32 per cwt., up $1.27 from the week before. April hogs gained $1.30 last week to close at $63.525 per cwt.
The December corn futures contract settled at $3.6325 per bushel Nov. 20. That is up 5 cents from the previous Friday. The March corn contract closed at $3.6975 per bushel Friday.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain and Scott Brown may write to them in care of this publication.
11/25/2015