By TIM ALEXANDER

Illinois Correspondent

PEORIA, Ill. — Preliminary indications from farmers and grain elevator operators in central Illinois seem to indicate corn yields there will easily exceed both USDA and local crop survey projections.

“Yields are about two-thirds entered here in McLean County, and they are coming in at 10 to 12 bushels per acre above our yield survey estimate of 217.8 bushels for corn,” said Dan Patten, vice president of Soy Capital Ag Services and a registered farm manager.

“We saw lesser yields in the northeast part of the county, and greater yields in the southern area. Overall, test weights were excellent, with a lot of 60-pound corn reported. A beautiful spring brought beautiful stands.”

The October USDA Crop Production report projected the 2018 Illinois corn yield at a record 212 bushels per acre, down 2 from its September forecast but up 11 over last year. That projection, regarded by many as an overestimation by the USDA, is now in danger of being plowed under.

“Our actual yields are going to land close to 235.95 bushels an acre, which is about 9 bushels higher than our yield tour estimate (of 226.49) in early August,” said Kim Craig, grain merchandiser for Bell Enterprises in Tazewell County.

“Perhaps some of the reason for the difference is the extremely heavy test weight, which has become characteristic to this year’s corn crop. Late rains may have made a difference since our August 8 tour. Fields were very even when we surveyed them, so I suggest counting was not the reason.”

Yields are also running high in Woodford County, according to Jeff Brooks, general manager of Grainland Cooperative, which operates several grain storage facilities throughout the region.

“The corn harvest is pretty well done. With a week or 10 days of good weather, it will be wrapped up. I have heard anywhere from 240- to 270-bushel yields for corn depending on where you are at. Overall, yields are comparable to what we saw a year ago, give or take a little bit,” Brooks said.

On the other side of the spectrum, Marshall County corn and soybean farmer Mark Lee said he expects to be about 10 percent under the volume of last year’s corn yield, which was a record for his farm. His brother, who farms nearby, is also slightly under average for corn.

“He was hit with drought and I was hit with too much moisture early and late in the season,” said Lee. “But if you go just a couple of miles west of me, they are on par with last year. A few in our area, I hear, are better than average. (Overall) these are still good yields.”

Soybeans are running 70-80 bushels an acre in the region, Brooks added. This, too, is higher than USDA’s Oct. 1 projection of a record high 66 bushels for soybeans in Illinois.

“We’ve had some good rains lately that are holding some farmers back from harvesting their soybeans while they dry down a little,” he said. Marshall County farmers who have harvested their soybeans are reporting yields of 60-85, according to Lee.

Soybean harvests exceeding USDA projections are being routinely reported in McLean County ranging from Bloomington to the south, according to Patten.

Around the Eastern Corn Belt, the Indiana corn yield, based on Oct. 1 conditions, was projected at 194 bushels an acre by the USDA. Kentucky’s yield was forecast at 180, while Michigan farmers were expected to harvest 163. In Ohio, USDA projected the corn yield at 190 bushels per acre.

Better projections

Though the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is considered the gold standard for yield predictions, researchers at the University of Illinois say they have developed a new method that outperforms WASDE estimations in a scientifically rigorous and reproducible way.

“Using seasonal forecasts and satellite data, we developed a very advanced yield prediction system for both the national and county levels,” said professor Kaiyu Guan, principal investigator on the study. “Our research demonstrates that we can do better than the USDA’s real-time estimation.”

Though Guan and his colleagues are not the first to use satellite data to project crop yields, their combined use of seasonal climate prediction and crop growth imagery from satellite photos is unique, according to Bin Peng, lead author of the study and postdoctoral research associate in the U of I Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, and the National Center for Supercomputing Applications.

“Compared with using historical climate information for the unknown future, which is what most previous research is based on, using seasonal climate prediction from the NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Centers for Environmental Prediction have better forecasting performance, especially in reducing the uncertainties,” said Peng.

“It was only when we added the satellite data that we started to see the improvement. That’s a clear indication that satellite data is extremely useful in this case,” added Guan.

An article published on the study, “Benefits of Seasonal Climate Prediction and Satellite Data for Forecasting U.S. Maize Yield,” was published in Geophysical Research Letters (DOI: 10.1029/2018GLO79291).