Calling last week’s trade a “rollercoaster ride” would likely be putting it mildly, as traders and farmers work to recover from price whiplash. A trio of what could be viewed as bullish news stories for soybeans stoked by some interesting trade rumors created a great start to the week, before the realization not much has actually changed from a fundamental perspective sent us back to around levels seen at the previous Friday’s close.

The week started with residual excitement from the prior week’s idea that trade discussions would take place at next month’s G20 summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi. With these talks being at the highest of levels, the idea that a resolution could be just around the corner gave traders the confidence to buy.

In addition to ideas that trade talks would soon be taking place, we saw two vessels of beans loaded out of U.S. ports destined for China in the weekly export inspection figures. This inspection announcement caused ripples of excitement, as it had been quite some time since we had seen bean sales to China loaded and shipped, as opposed to canceled.

Somehow this exciting news became even more exciting when a rumor of major Chinese purchases being inked rippled throughout trade. The talks, shipments and further sales ideas got an extra shot in the arm with higher-than-expected crush figures released in the Oct. 15 National Oilseed Processors Assoc. crush report.

Crushers reported just over 160 million bushels of beans were crushed in September, a record for the month and the highest seen in more than 10 years. That, coupled with falling soy oil stocks, indicated that demand remains strong domestically for beans.

Unfortunately, it didn’t take long after that day’s close for reality to set in. While it was exciting to see China show up on the shipments list, the fact that these purchases were inked several months ago, likely by state-owned Sinograin – who we already know will not see punitive tariffs attached to their purchases – is not quite as exciting as if they were fresh sales made by a private buyer.

In addition, the idea that major sales were made to China was quickly proven to be false, as no USDA flash sale confirming the purchase was released. Poor export sales for corn and beans released Thursday morning removed all hope that private sales activity with China was taking place.

Not only was China not on the list of buyers, “unknown” was in, canceling big quantities of corn and soybeans. China and unknown were also in to cancel soybean purchases in a flash announcement Friday morning.

With traders sad their excitement was likely for naught, the announcement by the Trump administration that the U.S. and China are so far apart, it’s likely the G20 talks are unnecessary, made it easy for bean bulls to transition to bean bears without much thought.

It is interesting to note, though, that China’s economy is struggling. At this point the Shanghai composite index is down 35 percent from the start of the year, and working on its worst bear stretch in over a decade, with far more significantly lower closes than higher ones.

The country’s economic growth also appears to be at its weakest pace since 2009. It is possible the Trump administration stating talks are unnecessary at this point could be yet another negotiation tactic, as the struggles the Chinese economy is facing are apparent across the board.

In other news, harvest pace was allowed to pick back up mid-week with a good amount of progress being made until some light rain fell across portions of the Corn Belt Friday. This week’s harvest progress is expected to show corn harvest in line with the five-year average, if not slightly ahead of it, while bean harvest remains slow.

Reports of decent but variable corn yields are common. Damage and shattering appears to be an issue in beans across much of the Western Corn Belt, with growers struggling to put a number on what it could actually mean when it comes to yield reduction and crop loss.

After a smattering of rain Friday into Saturday, growers look to have a harvest window before above-normal rainfall works its way back into the 6- to 10- and 11- to 15-day forecasts. At this point temperatures appear to remain below average for the rest of October.

Looking ahead into this week, it was likely we would see more of the same when it comes to market direction. At this point we are working to establish our short-term trading range, while also trying to gather concrete ideas when it comes to yields and overall production.

We will continue to monitor trade developments, but caution anyone from getting too excited when it comes to headlines, as the situation remains extremely fluid at this point.

Angie Setzer is the Vice President of Grain for Citizens Elevator in Charlotte, Mich. Her market commentary can be found on Twitter by @GoddessofGrain and online at www.citizenselevator.com

The opinions and views in this commentary are solely those of Angie Setzer. Data used for this commentary obtained from various sources are believed to be accurate.