By DOUG GRAVES

Ohio Correspondent

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Cheryl Turner, state statistician with the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service field office in Ohio, reported the state’s growers have produced record corn and soybean yields this year.

Ohio corn yield is up 16 bushels from last year’s report to 193 bushels per acre, which would be the highest on record. Total production, she said, is expected to be 629 million bushels, up 14 percent from 2017.

“Ohio soybean production is expected to total 294 million bushels, which would be the highest on record if realized,” she added. “The yield is forecast at 59 bushels per acre.”

But hold the party just a moment, say some Ohio ag economists – before celebrating this fall’s large crop by purchasing that new planter or cultivator for next spring, they’re warning growers to brace themselves for another gut punch in 2019, just as they did in 2018.

Unfortunately for the state’s 75,000 farmers, a gaggle of economists, professors and others from Ohio State University’s pool of experts who gathered last month for the annual Agriculture and Policy Outlook Forum have come to the conclusion that 2018 was a bad year for producers – and more of the same is expected in 2019.

“We need to be concerned how low will farm incomes go down and how long the downturn will last,” said Ani Katchova, an associate professor at OSU and a farm income expert. “It looks like it will be several more years.”

Economists and their predictions can be wrong. For instance, at last year’s forum, after a mild rise in incomes for Ohio’s farmers in 2017, OSU economists and ag experts predicted a decent year in 2018. However, a trade war with China and other parts of the world torpedoed prices for corn and soybeans, sending some farm income into a tailspin.

And while none of the experts at this year’s forum foresees a swift end to the trade war, it will weigh on the farm economy. “I think the trade conflict is not wearing well,” said Carl Zulauf, an economics professor.

Ben Brown, who manages OSU’s farm management program, said soybean prices probably will fall further next year. And worse, thanks to that trade war with China – the world’s largest buyer of soybeans – U.S. farmers are having a difficult time finding new markets for their harvest. China has stopped buying U.S. beans altogether.

“If we could get a trade deal done with China, that would help a lot,” said Charlie Ellington, a 31-year-old farmer from Louisville.

He rents the bulk of the 350 acres he farms in the Louisville and East Canton areas. He raises cattle and grows hay and grains, including soybeans and corn. He also owns a portion of a dairy farm.

“Nothing is a great margin right, now; everything is tight,” Ellington said.

He explained the lower prices farmers are getting for their product also affects related industries, such as farm equipment dealers and suppliers, as well as contractors who build facilities on farms. “There’s not a whole lot of new farm buildings being built.”

According to Brown, U.S. soybean prices won’t recover until China starts buying them again.

“Even if a trade deal is worked out, a recovery might not happen,” said Ian Sheldon, a professor of economics and international trade at OSU. “We could permanently lose market share to Brazil.”

At the forum it was announced that a study published by researchers at Purdue University shows if the trade war continues, and China continues to lock out U.S. soybeans, farmers here would plant 9 million fewer acres. That is the equivalent of doubling Ohio’s entire soybean crop.

According to Sheldon, help is one the way, as the USDA put together a one-time payment program for farmers hurt by the trade war, which will help soybean farmers.

“At these prices,” Zulauf said, referring to corn and soybeans, “we could be talking about $10 billion in farm payments next year.” That would be twice as much as farmers get this year, though the USDA is looking at a second round of payments to farmers before the end of this year.

“On a positive note, farms are still on much more solid financial footing than in the 1980s, when a crisis struck much of rural America,” Katchova said. “Interest rates are low, land values are high and bankruptcy rates remain at or near historical lows.”

Another positive is that federal income and business taxes have been cut and Ohio’s formula for calculating property taxes on agricultural land will produce lower payments due from farmers again next year.

Katchova worries, though, if the trade war persists and farm incomes continue to dip, there could be “trouble on the horizon.

“A repeat of the 1980s is unlikely, but this is not so rosy of a picture. It’s still bad news,” she said.