By MICHELE F. MIHALJEVICH

Indiana Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. farmers have planted the smallest wheat crop in more than 100 years, according to acreage numbers released Friday by the USDA.

The agency’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated 31.3 million acres of winter wheat planted, down 4 percent from the previous year. Producers seeded 22.2 million acres of hard red winter wheat, 5.66 million of soft red winter and 3.44 million of white winter.

The average pre-report trade estimate was for 32 million acres, noted Dana Mantini, senior analyst with DTN. The USDA’s acreage number is generally recognized as a 110-year low, he said.

“Definitely some problems with seeding the crop early have reduced the winter wheat seeding,” Mantini pointed out. “But we still have a billion-bushel carryout, and world numbers didn’t really change at all on wheat.”

The USDA released several crop production reports Friday, including some delayed by the partial federal government shutdown.

The wheat carryout number was expected to rise from the December estimate of 974 million bushels, but the increase was more than expected, he said. “I think that’s a function of the slow export pace that we’re seeing. We’re about 11 percent lower on wheat shipments and sales than we were last year at this time. Carryout is still a burdensome situation for U.S. wheat, for sure.”

Global wheat ending stocks were estimated at 267.5 million metric tons, down from the December estimate of 268.1 million. USDA increased worldwide usage by 2 million based on a rise in China’s feed and residual use.

U.S. wheat stocks as of Dec. 1, 2018, were 2 billion bushels, up 7 percent from a year earlier. The September-November disappearance was 390 million bushels, 1 percent less than a year prior.

Soybeans & corn

The 2018 soybean crop was a record 4.54 billion bushels, up 3 percent from 2017, NASS stated. Average yield was 51.6 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from the previous year. Harvested acres were 88.1 million, down 2 percent from 2017.

U.S. soybean stocks as of Dec. 1 were 3.74 billion bushels, up 18 percent from the year before. The September-November disappearance was 1.25 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2017.

Ending stocks were 910 million bushels, down from the December estimate of 955 million. USDA dropped export totals from 1.9 billion bushels in December to 1.875 billion.

“Soybean exports have not been keeping up with expectations and USDA reduced their export estimate by 25 million bushels,” said Todd Hultman, DTN lead analyst. “That’s a bit of a surprise to me. I thought that USDA would stand pat today, since we have such a backlog of exports sales data that we’re waiting for.

“One factor still in play is trade talks with China. Nobody knows yet how those will come out.”

World soybean ending stocks were 106.7 million metric tons, down from December’s 115.3 million.

“The main thing right now is whether we get a deal or no deal,” explained Steve Freed, vice president of grain research with ADM Investor Services. “The numbers really didn’t change that much. We noted that China’s soybean import numbers are coming down. They’re probably still a bit too high.”

On corn, U.S. farmers produced 14.4 million bushels in 2018, down 1 percent from 2017. Yield was 176.4 bushels per acre, down slightly from 2017’s record. The area harvested for grain fell 1 percent to 81.7 million acres.

Corn stocks in the United States as of Dec. 1 were nearly 12 billion bushels, down 5 percent from the same time in 2017. The September-November disappearance was 4.61 billion bushels, up from 4.34 billion in 2017.

Corn ending stocks were 1.7 billion bushels, a decline of 46 million from the December estimate. NASS made changes in demand for ethanol and feed and residual.

“Profit margins at the ethanol plants have really been suffering this year, and demand for ethanol has been down,” Hultman said. “We’re starting to see that in the production pace of ethanol.”

As for feed and residual, he said the drop “is not due to less feed demand in general, but more competition from milo (grain sorghum) or sorghum. We’re seeing more competition for the feed demand.”

World corn ending stocks were 309.8 million metric tons, up from the December estimate of 308.8 million.

Looking to the 2019 crop, Hultman expects U.S. farmers to plant 3 million more acres of corn – up from 89 million to 92 million – and 3 million fewer acres of soybeans, down to 86 million.

“It’s not so much because corn is super profitable, but because I think there are just a lot of big concerns about what’s ahead for soybeans and our demand status with China. The general consensus is most people are expecting more corn acres this year. We’ll just have to see specifically how that plays out.”

Winter wheat by state

NASS estimated Illinois at 600,000 acres of winter wheat, unchanged from the previous year; Indiana, 300,000, down from 310,000; Iowa, 30,000, up from 16,000; Kentucky, 430,000, down from 450,000; Michigan, 500,000, down from 510,000; Ohio 460,000 (record low acreage), down from 490,000; and Tennessee, 330,000, down from 380,000.

Kansas, at 7.2 million acres, is expected to plant the most wheat nationwide. The state’s acreage is a drop from 7.7 million.