By TIM ALEXANDER

Illinois Correspondent

PEORIA, Ill. — An old Midwest adage muses that if you don’t like the weather here, just wait a minute. But in a season of weather extremes, the old saw has never been sharper or more appropriate than during the late fall and winter of 2018-19 across the Corn Belt.

Before an audience of more than 50 farmers, meteorologist Mike McClellan, president of the Mobile Weather Team based in Washington, Ill., recited a list of wild, record-setting weather events that have defined the season to date. The atmospheric instability that has marked the season first became evident in November, when the state received an average of 9.8 inches of snowfall, followed by just 0.5 inch and a warming trend in December.

McClellan – whose company’s clients include farmers, traders, grain elevator operators and even the U.S. Professional Golf Assoc. – reminded those who packed the Peoria County Farm Bureau auditorium on Feb. 6 that on Dec. 21 a record 29 tornadoes touched down across Illinois, including one that caused major damage in Taylorsville.

On Jan. 7, temperatures reached 61 degrees in parts of Illinois, only to be followed by a plunge to minus-20. On Jan. 30, an Arctic blast settled across Illinois, resulting in a state record minus-38 degrees in Mount Carroll on Jan. 31 and some unsettling “frost quakes” heard and felt by millions in Illinois and the Midwest.

“What the up-and-down tells me is that the atmosphere seems to be wobbling. One week we might be affected by the southern jet stream; the next week we might be affected by the polar jet stream,” he said.

It’s all due to stratospheric warming in the North Pole. “It has to do with the teleconnections between our oceans and our atmosphere,” McClellan explained.

“In December I talked about a warming event in the upper layers of the stratosphere over the North Pole. When it warms significantly, it can literally bust the polar vortex in half. If it gets disrupted, that means really cold air comes spilling our way in January. This actually did happen.”

Current above-normal temperature readings in the far north stratosphere make it highly possible another disruption to the polar vortex may occur soon, he said. “Do I think we’re done with winter? When you look at what the polar vortex is doing right now, definitely not,” he said. “The second half of February into March is going to be colder than normal.

“(The weather pattern) El Nino is actually in a neutral phase right now. It is not even technically an El Nino any more. It was not very strong, as we expected. We have a combination of an El Nino and a La Nina going on right now.”

Here is a summary of McClellan’s weather projections through summer:

March: “The El Nino continues to weaken slowly and remains in a neutral position, but I think at least the first two weeks of March are going to be cold, maybe significantly. We’ll still be on that rollercoaster ride with the potential for snow. But we should have overall near normal temperatures and precipitation.”

April-May: “Going into spring planting we stay with El Nino, a very active weather pattern because of the amplitude of storm systems moving through the Midwest. Cold, warm, cold, warm ... we’ll get a cool start to April and May followed by near normal temperatures but above-normal precipitation.

“It could be very similar to what we had last year, but from what I can tell now it doesn’t look like a prolonged wet period. The severe weather potential is moderate late April into May, with a potential for flooding.”

Summer: “El Nino becomes a non-issue with near average temperatures expected, and slightly above-average rainfall amounts. Going into August and September everything stays neutral; however, there is a little bit of a sign that El Nino might want to make a bit of a comeback, which won’t hurt us at all. I don’t see where any prolonged wet weather issues will face us.

“I think overall, a very favorable crop (for) across much of the Midwest. I think the whole Midwest looks pretty darned good – we will just be getting a slow start.”

McClellan’s Mobile Weather Team website and subscription meteorological services can be accessed online at www.mobileweather.com