By MICHELE F. MIHALJEVICH

Indiana Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. farmers intend to plant more corn in 2019, while acreage devoted to soybeans and wheat is expected to be down, the USDA reported Friday.

Corn acreage – at 92.8 million – is estimated to be up 4 percent from last year’s 89.1 million, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said in its annual Prospective Plantings report. Soybean acreage is expected to fall 5 percent, from 89.2 million in 2018 to 84.6 million this year.

And for all wheat, 45.8 million acres are anticipated, down 4 percent from 47.8 million. If realized, all wheat planted acreage will be the lowest since recordkeeping began in 1919, according to NASS.

The agency also released Grain Stocks estimates as of March 1. For corn, 8.6 billion bushels were indicated, down 3 percent from a year ago. The December 2018-February 2019 disappearance was 3.3 billion bushels, down from 3.7 billion over the same period a year earlier.

Soybean stocks were at 2.7 billion bushels, up 29 percent. The December-February disappearance was 1.03 billion bushels, down 2 percent. Wheat stocks were 1.6 billion bushels, up 6 percent, and the disappearance was 419 million bushels, up 11 percent.

The news from both reports isn’t what U.S. grain producers had hoped for, though the jury is still out, noted Dana Mantini, DTN senior market analyst.

“The effect of the combined Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports released Friday is to add another bearish input to a market that has already been under pressure due to expanding supplies and a lack of demand,” he said. “This was a crushing blow to corn, especially when supplies had been dwindling and early-season demand was stout.

“However, with an estimated 26 million metric tons (mmts) to 27 mmts more corn likely to be produced in South America, weather permitting, the U.S. corn market, as well as soybeans and wheat, needs a bullish spark.”

NASS estimates for corn, soybean, and wheat stocks were higher than average pre-report trade guesses, said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale, Inc. The agency’s corn stocks number was 270 million bushels over the average trade guess, while soybeans were 33 million over and wheat, 36 million over.

“(The USDA found) larger than expected old-crop stocks, mainly in corn,” he explained. “As far as the planting numbers, we saw a larger switch than the trade was expecting – 3.7 million acres going into corn versus last year, and 4.6 million acres moving out of soybeans compared with last year.”

Acreage for the nation’s three top crops – corn, soybeans, and wheat – is estimated to be 224.7 million, a small decline from last year, Nelson said.

Several factors may have contributed to the USDA’s corn stocks number being larger than expected, said Jim Mintert, director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. The agency could have underestimated yields last fall, he noted.

On the consumption side, ethanol production has dropped. “It’s a response to pretty negative margins in the ethanol industry,” he explained. “It’s been pushing those ethanol production numbers down. That was probably one of the big components with respect to pushing that corn stocks estimate up above estimates, coming into the report.”

In addition, Mintert said corn export commitments are down about 8 percent so far this year.

Nearly half of the anticipated increase in corn acreage could come from two states, said Michael Langemeier, associate director of the center. “The expected corn acreage (nationwide) is up about 3.6 million acres from last year, and a full 45 percent of that increase is from North Dakota and South Dakota,” he pointed out.

“Most of the states are up, but it’s just that North Dakota and South Dakota were through the roof.”

For soybeans, four states – Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas – are responsible for about 40 percent of the reduction in acreage, Langemeier said.

Soybean exports to China are down 60 percent this marketing year from the previous year, Mintert said. Sales to the rest of the world, including Europe, Argentina, and Mexico, are up about 40 percent.

“The one we’ve been worried about, the one we’ve been talking so much about, is China,” he pointed out. “Those sales are down 636 million bushels compared to the prior marketing year. We have picked up sales elsewhere in the world, that’s the good news. But we have not picked up near enough to offset the decline that’s taken place with respect to China.”

Acreage by state

Corn expected to be planted in this region breaks down as follows: Illinois, 11.2 million acres in 2019, up from 11 million in 2018; Indiana, 5.5 million, up from 5.4 million; Iowa, 13.6 million, up from 13.2 million; Kentucky, 1.4 million, up from 1.3 million; Michigan, 2.4 million, up from 2.3 million; Ohio, 3.5 million, unchanged; and Tennessee, 850,000, up from 740,000.

Soybeans: Illinois, 10.5 million acres, down from 10.8 million; Indiana, 5.7 million, down from 5.95 million; Iowa, 9.4 million, down from 10 million; Kentucky, 1.8 million, down from 2 million; Michigan, 2.2 million, down from 2.3 million; Ohio, 4.95 million, down from 5 million; and Tennessee, 1.5 million, down from 1.7 million.

All wheat: Illinois, 600,000 acres, unchanged; Indiana, 310,000, unchanged; Kentucky, 450,000, unchanged; Michigan, 590,000, up from 510,000; Ohio, 500,000, up from 490,000; and Tennessee, 300,000, down from 380,000.

Estimates for Iowa wheat were discontinued this year; last year, its farmers planted 16,000 acres.