By MICHELE F. MIHALJEVICH

Indiana Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Corn and soybean growth continues to be far behind schedule in several states in this region, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

In Michigan, 5 percent of the state’s corn had silked, down from 43 percent at the same time last year. The five-year average is 38 percent. Twenty-three percent of soybeans were blooming, down from 59 percent. The five-year average is 60 percent.

For Ohio, 18 percent of corn had silked, down from 77 percent last year and from the five-year average of 56 percent. Twenty-seven percent of soybeans were blooming, down from 76 percent last year. The five-year average is 60 percent.

The NASS crop progress reports were released on July 22.

Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa farmers also have corn and soybeans behind normal. In Indiana, 23 percent of corn had silked; Illinois had 36 percent and Iowa, 41 percent. For soybeans, 21 percent had bloomed in Indiana, 30 percent in Illinois, and 47 percent in Iowa. All are behind last year and below the five-year averages for each state.

Corn and soybeans in Tennessee and Kentucky, meanwhile, were growing at rates much closer to normal. Eighty-eight percent of Tennessee’s corn had silked; 69 percent had silked in Kentucky. For soybeans, 56 percent had bloomed in Tennessee and 34 percent in Kentucky.

The late start for some crops has farmers and analysts concerned about the potential for a shortened growing season, said Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale, Inc. The Midwest probably won’t see a massive severe frost but the potential exists for a normal or earlier-than-normal frost risk in the area, he noted.

Some states in the Corn Belt may not see all of their corn mature by mid-October thanks to late planting, Nelson said. In the region, 69 percent of Ohio’s corn will not have matured by then; for Illinois, 49 percent; Indiana, 39 percent; and Iowa, 27 percent.

“This is still something that’s in front of us, which is a concern,” he said. “Most of Illinois will not be at risk for frost, let’s be honest about that, but based on the size of the state – it’s the No. 2 corn producer in the nation – this is a concern.”

Some farmers may have switched to shorter maturity hybrids, Nelson pointed out when he spoke July 24 during Allendale’s annual Summer Conference Series.

Allendale is projecting a 2019 corn crop of nearly 13 billion bushels with an average yield of 163.7 bushels per acre. The USDA has estimated a crop of 13.9 billion with an average yield of 166 bushels.

Trend yield is determined by seed population, but deviations from trend may be impacted by planting date and weather at pollination and kernel fill/finish, Nelson said.

“It’s not that weather during vegetative growth is not important,” he explained. “Weather in these very specific small portions of the growing season is so much more important that it overwhelmingly demands our attention compared with weather we’ve had so far.”

Corn demand from exports and ethanol production has been down, noted Steve Georgy, Allendale president. “We don’t really have corn demand right now. We keep getting weaker and weaker as we finish the marketing year. Through May, ethanol plants used 163 million bushels less than last year at that point. That’s pretty tough.”

Efficiency and poor margins may be blamed for the decrease, he said.

Demand is a key issue for soybeans, noted Greg McBride, an Allendale broker. The USDA’s export goal for old-crop soybeans was 1.7 billion bushels. With a few weeks left in the marketing year, the United States has exported 1.79 billion bushels.

There is concern over whether China will accept delivery on almost 200 million bushels of soybeans it has ordered, McBride added.

Brazil and Argentina expect to increase soybean planting this fall. Their potential combined production of 176.5 million metric tons would be a record, he said. “That’s not exactly what we want to see at this point, considering that our main buyer is buying the bulk of their beans from Brazil and Argentina.”

Allendale is estimating a 3.97 billion-bushel soybean crop for this year with an average yield of 48 bushels. USDA has projected a 3.85 billion-bushel crop with an average yield of 48.5.

A trade deal with China might lead to some increase in soybean demand for the U.S. and a slight decrease for South America, but it’s not going to move the needle much because China is already on the downtrend with its import needs, he said.

Massive worldwide supplies and a lack of demand are hurting the wheat market, Georgy said.

“Our problem is, when we look at demand specifically – that demand is very limited, it’s very light,” he noted. “We’re having trouble really getting this demand to pick up. So when we look at some of the issues that we have on hand, we just have too much wheat.”

Allendale and the USDA project all wheat production this year to be 1.9 billion bushels, with an average yield of 50 bushels per acre.