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Views and opinions: Frost possible in north states for first time in many months

August 19-25, 2019

But I shall see the August weather spur

Berries to ripen where the flowers were-

Dark berries, savage-sweet and worth the wait-

And there will come the moment to be quick

And save some from the birds, and I shall need

Two pails, old clothes in which to stain and bleed,

And a grandchild to talk with while we pick.

-Richard Wilbur from "Blackberries for Amelia"

The Black Walnut Leafdrop Moon enters its last quarter at 9:56 a.m. on August 23 and wanes through the remainder of the month, becoming the Autumn Apple Picking Moon at 5:37 a.m. on August 30, reaching perigee (its position closest to Earth) at the 10:37 the same day.

Rising at night and setting near midday, the moon’s position favors higher activity of many creatures in the morning.

Weather trends

This is the week that frost becomes possible in the northern states; snow even occurs at the upper elevations in the Rocky Mountains and in Canada. Here in the Midwest, the third major high-pressure system of the month brings chances of highs in the 70s a full 40 percent of the time on August 24, the first time since July 6 that odds have been so good for milder weather.

As that cool front moves east, the period between August 25-27 usually brings a return of warmer temperatures in the 80s or 90s. August 26-29 each carry a 30 percent chance of highs in the 90s, and August 25-26 are the last days of the year on which there is only a 10-15 percent chance of mild weather in the 70s.

On August 28, however, the final cool wave of the month approaches, and even though chances of 90s remain strong, the likelihood of chilly highs only the 60s or 70s jumps to 30 percent. August 30 is typically the coldest day of the month, and it brings a 50 percent chance of a high just in the 70s – the first time chances of that have been so good since the last day of June.

Nights in the 40s or 50s continue to occur an average of 40 percent of the time and, thanks to new moon and perigee, the mornings of August 29-30 bring the slight possibility (a 5 percent chance) of light frost for first time since the beginning of June.

Chances of rain are typically 35 percent per day now, with the exception of August 28, on which date thunderstorms cross the region 65 percent of the years in my record.

The natural calendar

August 19: Big white puffball mushrooms emerge like moons among spring's rotting stems and leaves.

August 20: Wild plums are ready for jelly when starlings gather on the high wires.

August 21: Elms, sumac, and sycamore start to turn. Most cardinals stop singing until late January.

August 22: Cross-Quarter Day marks the halfway point between summer solstice and autumn equinox. The sun enters Virgo on the same day.

August 23: Having fallen just 5.5 degrees between summer solstice and August 1 (from a declination of 23 degrees, 26 minutes to a declination of 18 degrees), the sun now accelerates its retreat from middle summer to 1 degree every three days, and it holds that rate of decline through September.

August 24: Buckeyes fall smooth and shiny to the grass. Tall goldenrod is turning. The hickory-horned devil, caterpillar of Citheronia regalis moth, appears near shedding black walnut trees.

August 25: The moist late-summer nights will encourage these round soccer ball-like mushrooms to swell up from the mulch.

Field and garden

Make corrective lime and fertilizer applications for autumn plantings in both the field and garden. When the violet Joe Pye weed flowers become gray like the thistledown, then peaches, processing tomatoes, and peppers are almost all picked along the 40th Parallel, and the fruit of the bittersweet turns orange.

When watermelons are ripe and firefly season comes to a close, farmers and gardeners cut the last of the oats and put in fall peas. The potato harvest is usually one-fourth complete. Wild grapes are ready to pick. Farmers prepare fields for the seeding of winter wheat.

Pumpkins are about full size, some turning. Winter squash is almost mature. Autumn plantings of lettuce, spinach, turnips, beets, and radishes should be well-developed, at least an inch or two high. Most first and second plantings of beans have been harvested.

Almanac literature

A Life-Changing Outhouse Fright

Many years ago, I built a cabin deep in the forest, and I had no people around me for miles. When I built the outhouse, the doorway faced nothing but trees so I didn’t put a door on it, just a shower curtain.

Now it was late fall, and the floor of the outhouse was covered with leaves. As I sat there doing what all humans do, I heard a clicking sound at my feet. I looked down and there at my feet was a HUGE spider about the size of my fist – and I hate big spiders.

It must have been some kind of sight, me hobbling out of there at the speed of light. And when I got far enough away, I pulled up my pants and ran to the cabin and got some wasp spray. I must have used a case of the spray all over the floor, walls, sides, roof, seat, and hole.

But still, I did my business in short order, after that day.

8/16/2019