You’ll recall last week I reported that June fluid milk sales were down 4.1 percent from a year ago. Part of the downfall is due to the rising popularity of plant-based beverages but the August 16 Dairy and Food Market Analyst (DFMA) reported that plant-based milk product sales have slowed some though they are still rising.

“Year-to-date, sales of alternative milks have only increased by 4.4 percent after rising by 9.5 percent in 2018,” the DFMA stated. “Notably, almond milk sales have increased by just 7 percent so far this year; half the 14 percent increase experienced in 2018.

The DFMA also reported that “Dairy Farmers of America has launched a new beverage that combines 50 percent milk with 50 percent of either oat milk or almond milk. The product is launched under the brand name Live Real Farms. Dairy and plant-based mixes are an emerging trend. A month ago, Chobani launched a line of dairy-based yogurts with nut-butters,” according to the DFMA.

In politics the U.S. trade representative and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Purdue were called upon this week to “capitalize on the conclusion of Japan’s national elections and quickly finalize a strong trade deal with Japan in order to secure critical market access for the dairy industry here at home.”

The call was made by the National Milk Producers Federation, U.S. Dairy Export Council, 70 dairy companies, and farmer-owned cooperatives, and associations. A joint press release stated; “Given that Japan is an established market with a growing demand for dairy products, the successful negotiation of a robust trade agreement with Japan will bring a much-needed boost to the economic health of the U.S. dairy industry and set our industry up on a path to compete effectively there moving forward.”

“The continued success of the U.S. dairy industry relies on stable export opportunities to markets abroad and Japan represents a major opportunity to expand growth. However, the Japan-EU agreement and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have allowed the European Union, New Zealand and Australia to position themselves to seize sales from the U.S. dairy industry. Swift negotiation of a trade deal with Japan that builds upon the best components of the Japan-EU agreement and the CPTPP is urgently necessary for America’s dairy farmers and processors.”

Lastly of all; with one month left until the 2019 sign-up for the Dairy Margin Coverage program closes, National Milk, this week, urged dairy farmers to enroll in the program, which guarantees a payout for cash-strapped producers in 2019.

The DMC is guaranteed to pay producers enrolled at the maximum $9.50 per cwt. coverage level for every month of production through June, with another payment predicted for July, according to USDA data and forecasts. Enrollment numbers indicate that 63 percent of dairy operations with an established DMC production history have enrolled so far for this year and represents nearly 17,000 producers nationally,” according to NMPF.

U.S. milk production inched higher ever so slightly in July. The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production Report showed preliminary output at 18.3 billion pounds, up fractionally from July 2018. Output in the 24 top producing states hit 17.5 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent, with 11 out of the 24 states in negative territory. Revisions added 26 million pounds to the original June total, now put at 18.26 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from June 2018.

There was bearish news for butter prices this week as U.S. stocks grew atypically in July and topped those of a year ago, according to the USDA’s latest Cold Storage report. The data showed 329.8 million pounds in storage, up 3.5 million pounds or 1.1 percent from June and 11.4 million or 3.6 percent above July 2018.

FC stone points out that only once in the past 10 years have butter stocks increased in July and that despite the fact that production is down 1.9 percent for the first six months of the year while commercial disappearance is up 1.2 percent.

American cheese stocks totaled 775.9 million pounds, down 10 million pounds or 1.3 percent from June, and 47.5 million or 5.8 percent below a year ago.

 FC Stone says “We have less cheese in storage than normal and we don’t think it’s because buyers are necessarily ahead of the game this year. We’ve seen less protein in the milk components, and we started out the year making less cheese courtesy of the Class III/IV inversion while demand, specifically domestic demand, is good this year. Those dynamics are all coming out in the wash now.”

HighGround Dairy points out that this is the first time on record from the USDA that both May and June experienced a draw down in cheese stocks and that the total cheese stocks showed the sharpest June to July decline on record.

 Cheese traders took the Cheddar blocks to $1.91 per pound Tuesday, highest level since November 2016, but they closed Friday at $1.88, unchanged on the week but 21 cents above a year ago. The barrels plunged to $1.6650 Thursday and stayed there Friday, a dime lower on the week and the lowest since June 18, but still 6 1/2-cents above a year ago and a headache producing 21 1/2-cents below the blocks. 11 cars of block traded hands on the week and 32 of barrel.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Lee Mielke may write to him in care of this publication.