By STAN MADDUX

Indiana Correspondent

WASHINGTON D.C. — Corn yields following a late spring planting could be better than originally expected, while projections for soybeans at harvest remain less clear.

That’s according to agronomists at Purdue University in response to the latest USDA yield forecast released Sept. 12. USDA projections are down slightly from the previous month, but still favorable because heavier losses were anticipated from heavy spring rains keeping a good percentage of the crop out of the fields for so long, said Jim Mintert, director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue.

Slightly more than 168 bushels of corn per acre are predicted at harvest by the USDA, whose information was derived by surveying farmers, reports from observers dispatched into the fields, and other sources including satellite data. The projection is less than 1 percent lower than the August forecast.

And 13.8 billion total bushels of corn are forecast, or 4 percent fewer than 2018 and 1.3 billion under the 2016 high mark.

USDA also reported 89 percent of corn is at proper maturity, compared to 97 percent being the five-year average at this point in the season. Eastern Corn Belt states are furthest behind, with Michigan at 69 percent maturity, Wisconsin at 73 percent, Ohio at 75 percent, Indiana at 82 percent, and Illinois at 88 percent.

“That tells us there’s still some risk to this crop out there. It’s not in the bin yet,” said Mintert.

USDA is also projecting a 20 percent reduction in soybean production across the nation, at 3.6 billion bushels. The amount of fields out of production due to the wet spring was the biggest factor cited, with 47.9 bushels per acre projected, or 7 percent less than a year ago.

According to USDA, 92 percent of soybeans are setting pods, compared to close to all the crop normally at this point in the season. The figures are lower in harder-hit states like Indiana, at 84 percent. Illinois is at 90 percent.

“It’s almost unheard of to see that low of a percentage. It’s just another indication of how late this crop is,” Mintert said.

Current soybean projections also vary greatly by state. Predicted soybean yields in Indiana at 49 bushels per acre, for example, are 5 under the five-year trend, while Nebraska is projected at just 1 bushel less than 2018’s record year in that state.

Record soybean yields are projected in Kentucky and Tennessee. “What a year for extremes,” Purdue ag economist Michael Langemeier observed.

With soybeans being a slightly later crop, he said the potential is higher for projections to change dramatically for soybeans, especially in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Favorable weather during the remainder of the growing season and a later frost will be more critical this year for making gains in actual yields.

“We’ll have to watch it,” Langemeier explained.

According to USDA, the season average corn price received by producers was unchanged, at $3.60 per bushel. The U.S season average soybean price is forecast at $8.50 per bushel, up 10 cents.

The agency stated ending stocks for soybeans are projected at 16 percent of usage. That was the most surprising aspect of the report, perhaps, for traders who felt in late winter that early spring ending stocks at this point would be higher, Mintert said.

“The idea we would be able to pull the ending stocks for soybeans as a percentage of usage down from the mid to upper 20s to 16 percent as currently projected, I think, was a surprise to traders relative to what they were expecting,” he noted.

Mintert said what is making projections even tougher is China recently agreeing to start buying more U.S soybeans again, as both countries work toward resolving their trade differences. The uncertainty is over prices and even more on ending stocks, he said.