By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Corn planting across the United States will be nearly 90.5 million acres in 2007, according to the results of a USDA Prospective Plantings survey released March 30.

Not surprisingly, ethanol demand and strong exports are cited as primary reasons for the anticipated increase of 15 percent over last year’s planting of 78.3 million acres. Favorable prices are driving figures which, if accurate, will represent the country’s second-highest planting since 1944.

Ironically, the price for May corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped that same day to $3.745/bushel, 20 cents lower than on March 29. Market analysts cited heavy selling based on the news of increased planting.

Growers surveyed in the seven Farm World coverage states intend to plant a total of just over 41.2 million acres this spring, or nearly 46 percent of the nation’s total corn. This is up from 36.4 million acres planted in 2006.

If these anticipated plantings come to pass, the biggest-gain states locally will be Illinois and Iowa, each adding well over 1 million acres of corn. Iowa is positioned to once again be the country’s most prolific producer, planting 13.9 million acres. Illinois will run a close second, at 12.9 million acres.

Nationally, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi each plan to more than triple their 2006 corn plantings. (At 950,000 acres, the largest of these, Mississippi, would still beat out only Tennessee in the FW coverage area).

The National Corn Growers Assoc. (NCGA) anticipates 83.5 million harvested acres under ideal conditions, and at an average 152 bu./acre, this would yield the nation’s largest-ever production at nearly 12.7 billion bushels.

NCGA President Ken McCauley said the market will support the increase. “I think we’ve got demand to use that many acres of corn,” he said.

He explained in 2006, 16 percent of national corn production went into ethanol and 55 percent into livestock feed. He estimates about 20 percent of this year’s harvest will go to ethanol, but more bushels than last year should go into feedstock, in response to livestock producers’ concerns about higher prices.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) attributed the increase in part to the Energy Act of 2005 and its renewable fuels standard, and said the news “confirms the potential for biofuels production and use to boost farm income, economic growth and jobs … while enhancing America’s energy security.

“This figure should help to address concerns about corn supplies,” Harkin said, referring to the March 9 forecast of tight ending corn stocks, at about 752 million bushels nationwide.

“Yet it also reminds us that intensified crop production demands greater efforts to conserve our resources – and that higher production in response to stronger prices can also lead to oversupply and lower prices.”

McCauley said last spring, national stores were at more than 2 billion bushels, and that high stores help drive up corn prices. He believes this year’s production could raise stores to the 1-billion mark. “We just don’t want to get back to where we were a year ago,” he said.

Weather influences
For three consecutive years, Bill Nelson pointed out Eastern Cornbelt farmers have had good luck with spring planting weather, but noted there is some anxiety in hoping for a fourth. Nelson, associate vice president of AG Edwards & Sons in St. Louis, Mo., also noted this region has had wetter-than-normal conditions for the past several months.

“We can look at averages and all those things, but weather still plays a part,” admitted McCauley, himself a White Cloud, Kan., farmer. Increased moisture is not as detrimental as some may believe, he explained.

Nationally, corn growers try to plant about 1 million acres daily over a 10-day period, he estimated. Losing a day here and there to rain can be made up before prime growing season is over and in some cases, farmers can plant more daily to make up for a lost day.

“We haven’t had ideal weather conditions, even last year,” McCauley pointed out. He added even now there are still snow drifts in Minnesota, an important corn state.

Soybeans, cotton down
In order to make room for more corn, soybean planting will be down in most states to a total of 67.1 million acres, 11 percent below last year. Only New York and the Southeast are anticipated to plant more.

Farm World states anticipate planting 31.4 million acres this spring, down from 35.1 million acres last year, a decrease on par with the national average. Illinois farmers expect to lower planting by 1.4 million acres, or about 14 percent. Iowa is also cutting back, by nearly a million acres, or almost one-tenth of its 2006 soybean acreage.

Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association, is not surprised. “Farmers will and should make decisions based on market signals, and right now the market is asking for more corn,” he said in a statement last week.

“At the same time, soybeans have continued to see strong growth in global demand, and we must aggressively seek to participate in this global growth with domestic farm policies and international trade agreements that are fair and equitable to soybeans.”

He cautioned farmers not to rely exclusively on one crop, as cellulosic ethanol and soy biodiesel are also competing in the energy market, not to mention there is world food demand for vegetable oil and high-quality protein sources – such as soybeans.