DES MOINES, Iowa — As U.S. hog farmers mark October as National Pork Month, a leading market analyst quickly dashed any hopes of a quick return to profitability, despite a recent estimate that broke a slaughter record set in 1998.

“The (latest) report’s key numbers were generally significantly larger than last year and, with only one exception, larger than the average of the pre-report estimates of industry analysts,” said Steve R. Meyers, market analyst for Paragon Economics, Inc. in Des Moines, Iowa.

“And, in my opinion, these numbers may be low. They generally confirm my long-held and oft-stated suspicion that U.S. productivity is again on the upswing, largely due to the effectiveness of circovirus vaccines,” he said.

Released Sept. 28, the USDA’s latest Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report indicated a larger hog herd of 64.6 million, with the inventory reaching 3 percent more from September 2006 and from June 1. In fact, the historic predictions of the largest weekly slaughter in hog harvest history by pork analysts and economists are now a reality, with the USDA last Friday reporting the weekly kill at 2.321 million head, which broke the current record of 2.265 million head set in late 1998.

“It looks like we’re going to slaughter over 29 million hogs in the fourth quarter of this year, with 10 million others coming in October,” said Glen Grimes, professor emeritus and extension marketing specialist at the University of Missouri in Columbia, Mo. “That will be a first as far as the hog market is concerned, with 10 million slaughtered in the United States.

“One of the reasons for that is we have one more slaughter date in October this year than we had last year, as well as one more weekly slaughter date in the fourth quarter as we had a year earlier,” he added.

The Sept. 28 report said all U.S. inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2006 through June 2007 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on its findings, the USDA added that small adjustments of slightly larger than one-half of one percent were made to the March 1, 2007 inventory and December 2006-February 2007 pig crop, with an adjustment of less than one-half of one percent made to the June, 2007 total inventory.

According to the USDA, Iowa still remains the nation’s leading pork producer, with 17,800 million hogs raised.

“Iowa continues to have straight line inventories of breeding swine, while ever more feeder pigs are imported into the state,” said John Lawrence, Iowa State University Extension agricultural economist. The USDA said the U.S. breeding inventory reached 6.14 million head, up 1 percent from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter.

The report said the U.S. market hog inventory, at 58.5 million head, was up 3 percent from both last year and the last quarter. The number of hogs 180 pounds or higher at the time of the survey, which have already gone to slaughter, was 3.4 percent above year ago levels and met the weekly slaughter in September, with an average weekly slaughter was 3.7 percent.

In addition, the pig inventory under 60 pounds, which are slaughtered in October and November, was 2.9 percent higher than a year ago. The report also said the June-August 2007 pig crop topped 27.5 million head, up 4 percent from each of the last two years. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.99 million head, up 3 percent from 2006 and up 2 percent from 2005; the sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd.

The average pigs saved per litter was 9.19 for the June-August 2007 period, compared to 9.11 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.30 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. The USDA said U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.96 million sows farrowed during the September-November 2007 quarter, which was up 1 percent from the actual farrowings in 2006, and up 2 percent from 2005. Although intended farrowings for December 2007-February 2008, at 2.94 million sows, are up 1 percent from 2007, and up 4 percent from 2006, Meyer said he didn’t think the current farrowing projections were correct.

“I don’t believe the farrowing intention numbers for the fall quarter,” he said, “and I think the spring quarter numbers may be low. To have 1.1 percent more breeding animals and then only farrow 0.5 percent more litters doesn’t add up.

“Even the +1.3 percent for Q1-08 may be low if what I am hearing about circovirus vaccines’ impact on sow productivity is true,” he added. “(But) that information is based on a very small sample and may also indicate improvement from very low levels, but we may get more and larger litters than we expect.”

Jim Robb, director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Lakewood, Colo., said the beef and poultry sectors had to be factored into the report’s latest estimates.

“We have per capita beef supplies down nearly 3 percent from a year ago in the 4th quarter, but this is being fully made up for by the increase in per capita chicken and pork supplies,” he said, adding the U.S. consumers should have almost a half pound more beef and poultry than a year ago.

“Per capita pork production in the 4th quarter should be up nearly 3 percent from a year ago,” he said.

Meyer said the estimated slaughter totals of 2.3 million head and slightly beyond would mean that U.S. producers would see red ink for the first prolonged period since 2003.

“Breakeven costs in the upper $40s on a liveweight basis and mid-$60s on a carcass weight basis just do not mix with carcass prices below $60 – and I believe that is what we are looking at for Q4-07 and Q1-08,” he said. “My calculations show Q2-08 prices of around $70/cwt. carcass and Q3-08 prices in the upper $60s.” But Meyer said he did see a bright spot among his otherwise gloomy predictions.

“Lower hog prices and lower ham prices could also improve this year’s lagging exports to Mexico,” he said. “Those lower ham prices likely will only come after holiday ham needs are met in early December. Still, any improvement will be helpful.”