LEXINGTON, Ky. — Few crops have fared well in one of the worst weather years state farmers have faced, but the once-king of crops in Kentucky has suffered through in pretty good shape, as the tobacco season draws to an end.

University of Kentucky extension Agriculture and Natural Resources Director Gary Palmer said the crop will likely yield totals close to last year, even though dry conditions have made the curing process difficult with late October’s heavy rainfall coming too late to make much of a difference – unless temperatures warm up. This year’s Easter freeze came too early to hurt tobacco, but the lack of rain made things tough once the crop made it to the barn.

“Tobacco requires several weeks of curing to change it from a green color to yellow, to dark brown. During this process, chemical changes occur in the tobacco to bring it to the quality tobacco companies desire. Under extremely dry conditions, especially with low humidity, tobacco mostly just dries up rather than cures,” Palmer said.

“If the process is too quick, some of the harsh chemicals and yellow color are left behind, making the leaf a less than desirable product. The recent moisture may help a few crops if tobacco is going to hang in the barn for a while, but higher temperatures are needed to create the proper chemical reaction needed to improve quality.”

While moisture may have come a little too late for many, it has still been welcomed with open arms, and a little help this year is better than none at all.

The latest crop information from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported the most current rainfall was continuing to help the quality and color of stripped tobacco, with the condition of stripped tobacco being reported as 2 percent very poor, 12 percent poor, 34 percent fair, 44 percent good and 8 percent excellent.

The report stated that 36 percent of burley tobacco had been stripped, compared to 33 percent last year and 36 percent for the five year average.

The late-season rains will also help replenish farm ponds and provide moisture needed for the newly-planted winter wheat crop, not to mention aiding fall growth in pastures. UK’s agricultural meteorologist, Tom Priddy, said the recent moisture was helpful, erasing nearly half the rainfall deficit in portions of the state, but not all.

“I don’t think we are out of the woods yet, but we’ve gotten some breathing room,” he said.

Priddy also offered hope for the next growing season, with a projected winter forecast calling for La Nina conditions to strengthen this winter, which means wet, mild weather for Kentucky. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

Temperatures in the Pacific play a role in weather across the United States, according to Priddy.

“The outlook looks good,” he said. “I hope we go into the next growing season with the water table replenished.”

A dry-weather crop

Kentucky climate is suitable to grow some of the best burley in the world, but the plant is not native to this area – rather, it is to areas that are continually hot and dry, such as the Southwest, where wild versions of the plant can be found.

So, it is not unusual for good yields to come out of dry seasons. Palmer said some of the state’s worst crops have come in wet years, most notably the 1983 crop, which saw 10 inches of rain in May of that year followed by a severe drought, creating what Palmer calls “a worst-case scenario.” In contrast, 1994 was by all accounts a dry year, but Kentucky tobacco enjoyed one of its highest yielding crops in many years.

Palmer said the more moisture tobacco gets early in a season the more it will need, so ideally, a season would begin under dry conditions, with rain coming in July and August. Then, of course, moisture and humidity is favorable during the curing stages to produce a quality product.

Regardless of the yield, the concern now becomes what buyers will think as producers will make their way to warehouses.

Much of this year’s crop could arrive with a color and quality not favorable to buyers.

The 1999 crop was considered too high in color and therefore of poorer quality, and was primarily rejected by companies and ultimately ended up being discarded, Palmer said.

This will be the first crop with this particular coloring since tobacco production switched to a free market system from the old production control price support system.

“I hope companies are a little lenient on color this year,” he said. “Some growers are teetering on whether to continue, and this could affect their decision.”

Tommy Yankey, UK extension Agriculture and Natural Resources agent in Anderson County, echoed Palmer’s sentiment and said he hopes buyers will be considerate this year.

“Overall, it’s a lighter-colored crop than normal, which causes concern about what buyers will do,” said Yankey. “Farmers will raise the crop if it is profitable, and I work everyday with those that still enjoy raising a quality crop.

“But, I hope buyers will not discount the tobacco too much. The companies say they want growers, so they need to prove it.”

Palmer said that how companies purchase this year’s crop could play an important role in whether they maintain their grower base. If companies purchase the crop without huge discounts, it could encourage producers to stay in business and even support additional production.