WASHINGTON, D.C. — In accordance with overall agricultural trade industry predictions, USDA lowered its estimate of corn yield between October and November, dropping production from over 13.3 billion bushels to just under 13.17 billion, still the highest production on record and the most harvested acres (86 million) since 1933.

Much, if not all, of the reduction came from decreased yield expectation; this is the second month in a row that USDA lowered its yield estimate. In September, it was 155.8, and it came down another 1.7 bu./acre from the October estimate, to 153 bu./acre, which is still nearly four bushels over last year and second only to 2004.

USDA reported lowered yield estimates from across the northern and western Corn Belt and contiguous areas of the Great Plains, due to hot, dry conditions during pollination, though yields were up over last month’s projections in the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley regions.

Compared to 2006, harvests for this year in Farm World coverage states are up in all except for Michigan, which is seeing a 4.2 percent drop from last year’s production. Statewide, its yield dropped greatly between 2006 and now, from 147 to 117 bu./acre. It is not, however, the only FW state to see yield reduction from last year – Kentucky dropped from 146 to 129 bu./acre, Tennessee from 125 to 108 and even Ohio went from 159 to 150.

The USDA Crop Production report cutoff was Nov. 1 and as of Oct. 28, nationwide corn harvest was 73 percent complete and soybeans were 84 percent finished. As of Nov. 4, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), corn harvest was 83 percent complete in Iowa, slightly ahead of schedule – though low in the southwestern and south-central regions of the state – while soybeans were slightly behind at 96 percent.

Supplying nearly one-fifth of the country’s total corn production, Iowa is on track for its largest crop on record.

In Illinois, 98 percent of both corn and soybeans had been harvested, and in Indiana, these figures were 91 and 96 percent, respectively – both well ahead of the five-year harvest rate and more complete in the southern and central regions of the state. In Ohio, corn and soybean harvests were also both well ahead of the five-year average, at 77 and 97 percent, respectively. At 69 and 91 percent, the same trend held true for Michigan.

In Tennessee, the corn was almost completely harvested as of Oct. 1, and as of Nov. 4, soybeans are 77 percent complete, slightly behind last year’s rate. Kentucky’s corn harvest was as good as finished and its soybeans were 84 percent complete – both ahead of the five-year average for the state. Nationwide, soybean production estimates are down slightly to 2.59 billion bushels for the year, which is 19 percent fewer than in 2006 – which was, admittedly, a record high for the U.S. The overall yield estimate dropped only 1/10 of a percentage from October, to 41.3 bu./acre. USDA will release its final 2007 corn and soybean production estimates on Jan. 11, 2008.

In wheat, states in Farm World’s coverage area are largely reporting nearly-complete seeding and majority emergence of the crop. As of last week, planting seemed finished in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan, was 81 percent complete in Kentucky and 60 percent finished in Tennessee.

USDA also projected ending corn stocks in the United States at 100 million bushels fewer than its October estimate, from nearly two billion bushels to just under 1.9 billion. It also raised its season average farm price projection 30 cents on both the low and high ends, from $2.90-$3.50 in October to $3.20-$3.80 this month.

Soybean season average projections rose sharply over October, by 65 cents on both ends of the range to $8.50-$9.50, reflecting an increase in both cash and futures prices.