More than 1,800 dairy cows died last week in the Yakima Valley of eastern Washington State. Severe cold and wind moved into the area with wind gusts reported up to 80 mph. Many areas received 18 to 24 inches of snow. While farmers attempted to help the cattle, many of the animals herded together and some of them trampled each other to death. News reports indicate more than 10 dairies in the area lost cows during the storm and the total loss may be around 2 percent of the cattle in the area according to the Yakima Herald.

Winter weather remains the topic of discussion among Midwest cheesemakers, according to Dairy Market News. Cheese production remains slower as plant managers work on inventories and weather-related production stoppages have slowed or stopped production in some cases. Contacts suggest cold weather and snow in the upper-Midwest were affecting both milk and cheese deliveries.

The USDA issued its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Feb. 8. The report was not issued in January due to the government shutdown. The 2018 milk production estimate was lowered, based on available data through December. The 2019 forecast was reduced on lower expected first-half dairy cow numbers and continued slow growth in milk per cow.

Dairy product prices for 2018 were adjusted to reflect available December price data. The 2019 cheese price forecast was lowered while butter, NDM, and whey price forecasts were raised from December.

The projected 2019 Class III milk price average was unchanged from the December estimate. Look for a 2019 Class III average of about $15.05 per cwt., unchanged from the December estimate, and compares to $14.61 in 2018 and $16.17 in 2017.

The Class IV price was projected to average $15.95, up $1.10 from the December estimate and compares to $14.23 in 2018 and $15.16 in 2017.

Cash cheese prices continued to strengthen in the Valentine’s Day week as traders anticipated the Feb. 19 Global Dairy Trade auction and the shortened President’s Day holiday Week. The week will include Milk Production reports for December and January and December Cold Storage data.

The Cheddar blocks climbed to $1.5925 per pound Wednesday, highest CME price since mid-October 2018, but closed Friday at $1.58, up 5 1/4-cents on the week and 4 cents above a year ago. The barrels finished at $1.4350, up 6 1/4-cents on the week, highest since Sept. 13, 2018, but 4 1/2-cents below a year ago when they jumped 12 cents, and are at an unsustainable 14 1/2-cents below the blocks. Sales for the week included six cars of block and 20 of barrel.

Meanwhile; the Feb. 12 Daily Dairy Report points out that “The increase in U.S. cheese prices has been augmented by the dollar, which continues to gain ground against the Euro, New Zealand dollar, and Mexican peso. The strong dollar makes U.S. cheese more expensive when the price is converted to importers’ currency. Tariffs put U.S. cheese at a further disadvantage in Mexico and China,” according to the DDR.

Those continuing tariffs drew sharp criticism by the Wisconsin-based American Dairy Coalition (ADC) which charged; “Mexico imports nearly a quarter of the U.S. dairy industry’s exports annually. It’s a critical $1.4 billion marketplace. And it’s one that President Trump continues to risk damaging permanently and unnecessarily. Locked in a trade war since May, Mexican leaders are setting aside American business connections that took decades to build as our neighbors to the south find new sources of cheese, butter and other products.

 This should have changed in November when Trump declared success with his newly rechristened U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement replacing NAFTA. In retrospect, it was a disingenuous statement: The administration has not lifted steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products, and in response those countries are refusing to sign the pact or lift retaliatory tariffs, impacting dairy products and other items,” the ADC stated.

 Plummeted dry whey shipments to China have pulled whey prices lower. FC Stone reports that African swine fever has reduced soy meal demand in China and some estimates say meal feeding is off 20 percent. African swine fever has also been detected in Japan.”

 FC Stone warns; “This issue will get worse before it gets better. How much damage will be done to china’s 700 million plus hog herd and how long will it take it to recover is still unknown. Some analysts think it could take 6-7 years for China’s hog herd to fully recover.”

The Dairy and Food Market Analyst (DFMA) says dry whey shipments to China have fallen 20 million pounds or 40 percent. Total exports of whey products have decreased 18 percent and exports of milk powder were down 13 percent.

Analyzing the November Dairy Products report, the DFMA stated; “Total milk powder output was the biggest surprise falling 22 million pounds, down 12 percent. Skim milk powder production plummeted 27 percent, and nonfat dry milk production decreased 7.7 percent. Despite the declines, milk powder inventories grew by 35 million pounds.”

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Lee Mielke may write to him in care of this publication.