MANDAN, N.D. – The first U.S. sunflower production estimate for 2020 is 2.81 billion pounds, up 44 percent from the revised 2019 production of 1.96 billion pounds, and the highest since 2015, according to the Oct. 9 USDA Crop Production Report.

“Area planted, at 1.7 million acres, is up 10 percent from the June estimate, and up 26 percent from last year,” said John Sandbakken, executive director of the National Sunflower Association (NSA).

“Sunflower growers expect to harvest 1.62 million acres, up 10 percent from the June forecast, and up 29 percent from 2019,” he added. “Acreage updates were made in several states based on a thorough review of all available data.”

The report said October yield forecast, at 1,730 pounds per acre, is 170 pounds higher than last year’s yield, and will be just one pound less than the record high average yield for the nation, if realized.

As of Oct. 1, higher yields are expected in five of the eight published states compared with last year, according to NSA, with increases forecast for Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas. But decreases are expected in California, Minnesota, and Texas.

The report added projected production in North Dakota, the leading sunflower-producing state this year, is 1.23 billion pounds, an increase of 64 percent from 2019.

“North Dakota has had a long history of sunflower production,” said Hans Kandel, North Dakota State University extension broadleaf crops agronomist. “Leading sunflower production can mean leading in acres planted/harvested, but it can also be leading in total production.

“Currently, the USDA is forecasting a yield of 1,761 lb/acre for North Dakota, and 1,867 lb/acre for South Dakota,” he added. “With the number of anticipated acres x yield, the total production for 2020 will be highest in North Dakota.”

Compared with last year, the average yield forecast in North Dakota is up 245 pounds per acre from 2019, and will be the highest yield on record, if realized, the report said.

In South Dakota, the average yield is forecast at 1,867 pounds per acre, up 173 pounds per acre from last year, and will represent the second highest yield on record, if realized, the report said.

Kandel said the reasons for higher yields in North Dakota and South Dakota, then in other states, are:

There are better hybrids on the market. There is a trend for increased sunflower yields. Also, due to dry weather conditions, the disease level was lower.

Due to the warmer season, the sunflower matured early, and therefore, with less time in the field, the bird damage would be lower. Due to the wet fall of 2019, ample water was stored in the soil, and the sunflower was able to utilize the soil moisture.

As of Oct. 29, Sandbakken said another week of largely clear weather allowed sunflower harvest progress to advance 15 percent to 40 percent complete for the week ending Oct. 18.

“Harvest progress remains 18 percent ahead of the five-year average,” he said. “In the past week, producers harvested an additional 235,000 acres, pushing 2020 harvested acres to about 618,000 acres.”

He said harvest progress remains about two weeks ahead of the five-year average, and four weeks ahead of last year at this same time.

“However, several snow events this week (starting Oct. 25) in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota could slow harvest for a few days,” he said. “Traders will be watching to see how much the snow disrupts harvest progress, affects yield and crop quality.”

The next U.S. sunflower production estimate will be released in January 2021.