SAN ANTONIO, Texas – Overall meat dollar sales in 2020 during the pandemic increased 18.4 percent, and volume sales grew 10.3 percent, which is 20 percent above 2019 levels, according to data compiled by IRI, and reported by Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, LLC.

“This translates into an additional $12.7 billion in meat department sales, which includes an astounding additional $5.7 billion for beef, $1.6 billion for chicken and $1.1 billion for pork than during the same period in 2019,” she said.

She said Thanksgiving and Christmas affected November and December 2020 meat sales, along with consumers’ shopping changes in response to the rapidly rising number of new COVID-19 cases across many states.

“Some states and cities enacted renewed shelter-in-place mandates,” she said. “This resulted in consumers’ trip frequency falling below last year’s levels, much like it had in early April. Likewise, e-commerce transactions made a return to spring levels.”

She said celebrations were vastly different for both Thanksgiving and Christmas last year.

“There was less travel, smaller gatherings, and many consumers shopped much earlier or online to avoid holiday crowds,” she said. “But unlike the spring when similar conditions drove grocery sales double digits above year-ago levels, December grocery spending was the most subdued it has been since the onset of the pandemic.”

In some cases, retailers encouraged online shopping to manage traffic flow during one of the busiest shopping weeks of the year, she said. 

“Some provided free delivery, ramped up their curbside order slots and encouraged earlier shopping,” she said. “Yet, multi-outlet sales the week ending Dec. 27 (2020) had the highest gains, at 19.2 percent above year-ago levels, reflecting an additional $275 million in addition meat department dollars.”

The U.S. meat department dollar sales gain of 12.9 percent is very similar to the sales increases measured since last August, she added.

“As such, patterns seen in the second half of the year are more indicative of the first-quarter demand in 2021 than the total 2020 growth,” she said. “The 7.2 percent increase in meat department volume over year-ago levels is higher than we’ve seen since (last) August. Dollars and volume trended 5.7 points apart – significantly closer than earlier in the year.”

Fresh meat in December 2020 had higher gains in both dollars and volume on a larger base, she said. “The gap between dollar gains and volume gains decreased from 8.1 points in (last) November, to 5.7 points in (last) December for the meat department as a whole,” she said.

According to data compiled month-to-month on the price-per-pound volume by the Chicago, Ill.-based market research company, IRI, November was “an anomaly in terms of the total meat department price that was pulled down by turkey,” Roerink said.

Last November, prices were much more in line with the trend line that had started to develop in the second half of the year, with prices moderating a bit each month in favor of the consumer, she said.

“The average price per volume for turkey rebounded somewhat (last) December, to $1.99 per pound,” she said. “This is still far below the typical levels, but 75 cents more than it was (last) November.

“During September 2020, 35.5 percent of all meat volume was sold on some type of promotion, whether a circular feature, display, temporary price reduction or any combination thereof,” she added. “This percentage increased to 36.2 percent (last) November, but came down a bit (last) December. December 2020 merchandising levels were about 4 points lower than the year prior.”

Moreover, processed meat is selling more on promotion than fresh meat, she said. 

“In December 2020, 39.4 percent of all processed meat volume was sold on promotion versus 32.9 percent for fresh,” she said. “For smoked ham, nearly 65 percent of all volume in December 2020 was sold on merchandising. Fresh turkey was very aggressive in promotions (last) November, but only somewhat elevated from (last) October levels come (last) December.”

She said, however, “The first-quarter outlook for 2021 is likely going to continue to be dominated by news and concern over the virus and the vaccine, and is likely going to generate similar sales results.”

Chris DuBois, IRI senior vice president of protein practice in Chicago, said, “The increase in fresh foods like meat tells us that consumers’ shopping trips – specifically the stores they choose to go to – are being driven by what store they feel has the best meat and fresh food selection.

“Retailers who want to win in this area will need to monitor and communicate their out-of-stocks, as well as find new ways to market and entice consumers with what they do have available,” he said. “Consumers are not shopping around like they used to, and they are hoping everything is on the shelf at their preferred store.”

According to data recently released by the USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), U.S. beef exports posted one of the best months on record last November.

“Demand for U.S. beef in the global retail sector has been outstanding, and we expect this to continue in 2021,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Unfortunately, foodservice continues to face COVID-related challenges. We expect a broader foodservice recovery this year – especially from mid-2021, but will likely still see interruptions in some markets.”

He said November 2020 was also a strong month for pork exports, which already surpassed the full-year volume and value records set in 2019. “For U.S. pork, it’s great to set new records with an entire month to spare, but especially gratifying to see a diverse range of markets contributing to U.S. export growth. The USMEF still expects strong pork demand from China in 2021, but we’re seeing a much-needed rebound in other regions – especially in Western Hemisphere markets.”