AMES, Iowa – The risk of widespread flooding will be minimal for the Midwest and Appalachians this spring, according to agricultural meteorologists.

“There was fairly limited snow early in the winter – or limited snow that was staying around,” said Dennis Todey, director of the USDA Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa. “That has changed in the last several weeks, with more snow sticking around in parts of the region.  

“Currently, we have a good snow pack from Nebraska into Iowa, and into Wisconsin, and parts of Minnesota, northern Illinois, and Michigan,” he added. 

He said, however, the eastern Corn Belt has received less snow. 

“But there has been some recently that has provided a little help and cover for winter wheat during the cold,” he said. 

“We do expect some additional snow,” he added. “But at this point, other than maybe an individual event, most of the precipitation we would expect to occur as liquid. Around the Great Lakes, we could see more snow.”  

Moreover, he said, current longer range outlooks keep things warmer. 

“I would expect that to help warm soils,” he said. “I would expect earlier movement on planting, unless we get too wet. That is possible, given the current longer range outlooks (90 days). Along the Ohio Valley, (there is) an increased chance of wetness in the spring.”

Justin Glisan, State Climatologist of Iowa, said Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks for March-April-May show elevated probabilities of wetter-than normal-conditions from eastern Iowa through the Ohio Valley. 

“The April-May-June variant of the seasonal outlooks also show this wetter-than-average signal, though it expands to cover all of Iowa and much of the Atlantic coast, from northern Georgia to Maine.  

“In terms of temperatures, much of the southern two-thirds of the United States have an elevated probability of warmer-than-average temperatures, with higher probabilities farther south,” he added.

He said below-average snowpack is currently present across the Upper Missouri Basin, with above-average snowpack across much of Iowa – especially in the state’s eastern half. 

“Current flood outlooks indicate that there exists a normal chance for all categories of flooding, spanning minor to major,” he said. “The rapidity of snowmelt, along with precipitation behavior, will dictate whether flood risks change as we move into the growing season.”

Todey said the flooding potential is more along the Ohio. 

“They have had a few issues already, and as indicated, have a better chance of wetness,” he said. “There is much less of a concern in widespread flooding further west.” 

“It is possible that we get some flooding with individual events,” he added. “But the widespread problems with wetness are not expected. In fact, the western Corn Belt and Plains’ soils are quite dry. We expect to have early access to fields, and possible early planting.”

Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist, said spring weather may be slow to arrive due to a few spells of wintry weather still in the pipeline. 

Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather lead long-range meteorologist, warned it is not quite time to put away the heavy winter coats just yet. 

“We do have more cold air coming in February, and into early March,” he said.

Late-winter and early-spring cold blasts could increase ice development on the Great Lakes, but ice coverage as a whole has been significantly lower than normal, he said.

“If bitterly cold air does not have a prolonged presence over the Midwest and the ice coverage on the lakes remains below-normal into the early part of spring, it could have implications on the region’s weather later in the season,” he said.

He added spring in the Midwest could play out “like a bit of a roller-coaster ride,” and conditions can change dramatically from chilly in March and April, to unusually warm in May.

As the cold air begins to loosen its grip, he said the risk of flooding will be on the rise across portions of the Midwest. 

“We do think it’s going to get pretty wet later in March and April,” he said.

But, he added, it does not look like there will be widespread, record-breaking flooding across the region.