By Dr. Rosmann

Agricultural production this year in Ukraine is likely to be hampered by the ongoing conflict with Russia. Forecasters already predict shortages of key crops around the world, especially wheat, corn and oilseeds.

Can Ukrainian agriculture recover rapidly if conflict with Russia subsides? The short answer is “Yes” because of demonstrated resilience by Ukrainian farmers during and after previous wars and genocides; behavioral healthcare assistance can speed their recovery.

The circumstance in Ukraine raises additional questions, such as: What kinds of assistance will Ukrainian farmers and their communities need if they survive the invasion by Russia? Will the country be able to feed itself even if it’s not able to export agricultural goods as usual? Are shortages of the commodities that Ukrainian farmers usually produce likely to lead to global insufficiencies?

To answer these questions, let’s begin by looking at last year’s agricultural production in Ukraine. During 2021, Ukraine ranked 1st globally in the production of sunflowers, 6th in corn and barley, 7th in rapeseed (canola) and 9th in soybeans and wheat, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Despite ranking 45th in geographic size, in 2021 Ukraine accounted for 19 percent of global exports of canola oil, 18 percent of barley, 16 percent of corn and 12 percent of wheat. Some 70 percent of its land is devoted to agriculture.

Ukrainian farmers are capable and efficient, which emigrants also demonstrated wherever they settled after leaving their mother country. Canada is the third most popular country to which Ukrainians moved; the country highly values its Ukrainian farmers who now raise crops mainly in the Prairie Provinces.

It’s likely that Ukrainian farmers have not fled the countryside in as great numbers as residents from other locations where Russia has concentrated its bombing. According to online news reports, agricultural areas of Ukraine have experienced less devastation than its cities and towns thus far.

News reports also said agricultural production is hampered by insufficient fuel supplies for operating farm equipment, destruction of some grain storage facilities, and a damaged transportation system for their agricultural goods.

Despite these impediments, there is a strong likelihood that Ukrainian farmers will find ways to produce sufficient food for their own country this year, even if worse destruction occurs. Ukrainian farmers and its people in general have strong agricultural roots and ties to their land and resources, which they are defending stalwartly.

It’s in their agrarian imperative to furnish essentials for life: food, fibers for clothing and shelter, and fuels. They are highly motivated to overcome adversity in order to carry out their genetically-inclined agrarian urges.

Whether Ukraine farmers will be able to supply enough food for their fellow citizens for the following year is less clear. How far Vladimir Putin and Russia will go to destroy Ukraine is unknown.

It’s highly likely that Ukraine won’t be able to ship commodities to other countries as in the past until they restore necessary infrastructure and recover from psychological trauma.

Recovery depends greatly on the behavioral health of Ukraine’s farm population. The Ukrainian farm population, and all their residents for that matter, would benefit from applying the best practices of the Farm and Ranch Stress Assistance Network which is part of the current (2018) Farm Bill. These best practices were established by research and model program efforts coordinated by AgriWellness Inc. (www.agriwellnessinc.org).

Best practices that can assist Ukrainian farmers, their employees and agricultural communities include:

1) Setting up free and confidential 24/7 farm crisis telephone and email helpline services that utilize trained counselors who understand farming and can provide online and in-person counseling by professionals who understand agriculture. The counselors should be well versed in treating anxiety issues, including post-traumatic stress disorder, as well as depression, stress fatigue, recovery set-backs, and most importantly, the culture of Ukrainian farm people.

2) Ukrainian farmers and communities would benefit from community education and support meetings that are led by trained facilitators.

3) Farm crisis services should be encouraged by governmental agencies and leaders that farmers trust, which may include medical care providers, clergy and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Finally, to me, it seems that concerns about world food shortages are overly dire and perhaps hyped up in the media and among commodity traders. I say this because two major wheat and barley producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina and Australia, report above-average yields of both crops this harvest season.

Meanwhile, anticipated shortages of grains, soybeans, corn, sunflowers and food oils from Ukraine could be mostly offset by increased plantings of wheat, barley, soybeans, corn, sunflowers and canola in the United States, Canada, and countries in the European Union if farmers switch crop options forthwith.

Unless anticipated growing conditions deteriorate in the Northern Hemisphere this growing season, supplies of the major commodities will likely be sufficient for the world as a whole. Even the supplies of meat, seafood, dairy and poultry items will not change much once the bird flu epidemic recedes.

Behavioral health recovery assistance should be part of the U.S. aid.

Dr. Rosmann can be contacted by email at: mike@agbehavioralhealth.com.