You’ll recall that April milk production was down 1.0 percent from April 2021. The April Dairy Products report shows powder production showed the biggest increase.

Cheese output totaled 1.156 billion pounds, down 4.5 percent from March and just 0.1 percent above April 2021, keeping in mind that April cheese stocks were up 2 percent from a year ago. Total cheese output for the first four months of 2022 amounted to 4.6 billion pounds, up 2.5 percent from the same period a year ago.

Italian cheese totaled 489 million pounds, down 5.5 percent from March but 1.2 percent above a year ago. YTD Italian stands at 1.98 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent. American type cheese, at 465.4 million pounds, was down 1.8 percent from March and 2.7 percent below a year ago. YTD output, at 1.85 billion pounds is up 0.6 percent.

Mozzarella totaled 385.8 million pounds, up 2.3 percent from a year ago, with YTD at 1.5 billion pounds, up 3.8 percent.

Cheddar, the cheese we watch daily at the CME, dropped to 321.0 million pounds, down 6.2 million pounds or 1.9 percent from March and down 16.8 million pounds or 5.0 percent below April 2021. It’s why CME prices remain strong.

April butter output fell to 181.2 million pounds, down 20.7 million pounds or 10.3 percent from March, and 1.8 million or 1.0 percent below a year ago. YTD butter is at 760.6 million pounds down 4.2 percent from a year ago. Butter stocks, you’ll recall, were down 23 percent from April 2021.

Yogurt output totaled 378.1 million pounds, down 8.9 percent from a year ago, with YTD output at 1.56 billion pounds, down 4.3 percent.

Dry whey production slipped to 82.8 million pounds, down 300,000 pounds or 0.3 percent from March, but was 5.4 million pounds or 7.0 percent above a year ago. YTD is at 316.6 million pounds, up 0.5 percent. Dry whey stocks totaled 73.1 million pounds, up 4.2 million or 6.1 percent from March and 12.8 million pounds or 21.2 percent above those a year ago.

Nonfat dry milk output crept to 195.8 million pounds, up 4.5 million pounds or 2.3 percent from March and up 2 million or 1.0 percent above a year ago. YTD powder was at 728.2 million pounds, down 7.2 percent. Stocks totaled 298.7 million pounds, up 10.9 million pounds or 3.8 percent from March and up 1.3 million pounds or 0.4 percent above those a year ago.

Skim milk powder output climbed to 35.6 million pounds, up 2.5 million pounds or 7.3 percent from March but down 20.4 million or 36.4 percent below a year ago. YTD SMP was at 141.7 million pounds, down 29.3 percent from a year ago.

The USDA lowered its milk production estimates for 2022 and 2023 in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE), citing slower growth in milk-per-cow than previously expected in 2022. A lower milk per cow estimate in 2023 resulted in the lower 2023 projection.

2022 production and marketings were estimated at 226.4 and 225.4 billion pounds respectively, down 300 million pounds on production and 200 million on marketings from last month’s estimates. If realized, 2022 production would only be up 100 million pounds from 2021.

2023 production and marketings were estimated at 229.3 and 228.2 billion pounds respectively, down 200 million pounds on each. If realized, 2023 production would be up 2.9 billion pounds or 1.3 percent from 2022.

Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) were raised from last month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand. The whey price forecast was lowered on observed prices. With mostly stronger product prices, both Class III and Class IV milk prices were raised.

The 2022 Class III milk price was projected to average $22.90 per hundredweight, up 15 cents from last month’s projection, and compares to $17.08 in 2021. The 2023 average is estimated at $20.65, also up 15 cents.

The 2022 Class IV average is pegged at $24.65, up 85 cents from a month ago and compares to $16.09 in 2021. The 2023 average is projected at $21.90, up 50 cents from last month’s estimate. I’ll have more details next week.

In the week ending May 28, 49,900 dairy cows were sent to slaughter, down 3,000 head from the previous week, and 3,700 or 6.9 percent below a year ago.

This week’s Global Dairy Trade auction reversed direction, ending five consecutive declines, as China re-opens and global milk output remains in question. The weighted GDT average was up 1.5 percent, following the 2.9 percent drop May 17. Traders brought 47.3 million pounds to the market, down from 53.5 million on May 3, and the average metric ton price was at $4,656 U.S., up from $4,432.

The gains were led by butter, up 5.6 percent, after falling 1.0 percent in the last event. Anhydrous milkfat was up 2.7 percent, after inching 0.6 percent higher last time. Buttermilk powder was up 4.5 percent and skim milk powder was up 3.0 percent, after slipping 0.6 percent.

Whole milk powder was off 0.3 percent, after dropping 4.9 percent last time, and GDT Cheddar was down 3.6 percent, after slipping 0.1 percent last time.

StoneX Dairy Group says the GDT 80 percent butterfat butter price equates to $2.6851 per pound U.S., up 14.1 cents after dropping 2.5 cents in the last event, and compares to CME butter which closed Friday at $2.9750. GDT Cheddar, at $2.4334, was down 12.3 cents after losing 0.8 cents last time, and compares to Friday’s CME block Cheddar at $2.2550. GDT skim milk powder averaged $1.9231 per pound, up from $1.8669. Whole milk powder averaged $1.8861 per pound, up from $1.7845. CME Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at $1.8550.

StoneX Chinese offices report COVID numbers are in decline in China, allowing authorities to slowly reopen many areas of Shanghai, Beijing, and elsewhere.

That said, China remained noticeably less active in the GDT, says StoneX. “Chinese buying accounted for less than 20 percent of the whole milk powder volume, which overall was down from the previous event. When the Chinese are active they can account for upward of 50 percent or more of the WMP volume.”

Meanwhile, U.S. cheese exports set a record for April, totaling 91.2 million pounds, up 2.4 percent from April 2021, and up 9.5 percent year to date, according to the latest data. Mexico remained the top destination, says HighGround Dairy, up 8 percent.

Speaking in the June 13 Dairy Radio Now program, HGD’s Lucas Fuess reported that Cheddar exports hit 20.4 million pounds, up 107.6 percent, much of it going to Japan and South Korea, as Asian countries look for more affordable prices.

Butter exports totaled 9.8 million pounds, down 9.7 percent, though YTD are up 24.9 percent. This was the first drop since November 2020, according to HGD, but compares to strong shipments a year ago that were difficult to match, Fuess said.

Nonfat and skim milk powder, at 162.1 million pounds, was down 6.3 percent and down 7.8 percent YTD. Dry whey exports totaled 37.5 million pounds, down 18.9 percent from a year ago and down 22.1 percent YTD.