DES MOINES, Iowa – Despite being down 1 percent this third quarter, September’s hog numbers were up 2 percent from June’s second quarter figures, according to the Sept. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report.

“We’ve seen in other years an irrational expansion that hurts the whole industry,” said Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting Group in Merrimack, N.H., who analyzed the Sept. 29 report in a teleconference with reporters.

“The fact that we are keeping the supply in check, given all the uncertainty out there – especially the increasing costs – I think that’s positive for producers,” he added.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, the report said of the 73.8 U.S. million hogs and pigs, 67.6 million were market hogs, while 6.15 million were kept for breeding.

“Overall, the breeding herd right now is about 38,000 head less than it was a year ago at this time,” Kalo said. “That’s important because it’s going to affect what the numbers are for the September-to-November time period and future quarters.

“We’re going to be slaughtering 2.6 million hogs a week, relatively the same or a percent more than last year. There is plenty of pork in the pipeline at prices that could help bring what used to be price inflation at retail.”

Jason Franken, Western Illinois University agricultural economist, who also analyzed the report, said the smaller pig crop should imply a similarly smaller slaughter this winter.

“Farrowing intentions for the fall and winter, respectively, are down 2.5 percent and 0.6 percent from the prior year, which suggests that slaughter levels in subsequent periods aren’t in danger of getting much above year-ago levels,” he said.

The report said from June 2022 through August 2022, 33.6 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, down 1 percent from the same period one year earlier. From June 2022 through August 2022, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.13 pigs per litter.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.97 million sows farrow from September 2022 to November 2022, and 2.9 million sows farrow from December 2022 to February 2023, the report said.

The report said Iowa had the nation’s largest inventory, at 23.4 million head; Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 8.8 million head; and North Carolina was third, with 8.3 million head.

Iowa’s Sept. 1 inventory was up 2 percent from the previous quarter, but down 3 percent from the previous year. The June-August 2022 quarterly pig crop was 5.8 million head, up slightly from the previous quarter, and up 1 percent from last year.

A total of 500,000 Iowa sows farrowed during this quarter. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.6 for the quarter, which is a record high of pigs saved per litter for any quarter. As of Sept. 1, producers planned to farrow 500,000 sows and gilts in the September-November 2022 quarter, and 485,000 head during the December 2022-February 2023 quarter.

In Indiana, the total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 4.4 million head, up 100,000 head from a year ago, according to State Statistician Nathanial Warenski. Breeding hog inventory, at 250,000 head, was unchanged from last September.

Indiana’s June-August 2022 pig crop, at 2.85 million head, was down 8 percent from 2021. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 265,000 head, down 20,000 from a year ago. The average pigs saved per litter was 10.75 for the June-August period, compared with 10.9 last year.

Moreover, Indiana’s market hog inventory, at 4.15 million head, was up 2 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the June-to-August quarter was 10.85, compared to 10.7 from the same period last year.

In Illinois, total inventory of all hogs and pigs was 5.2 million head, down 2 percent from June 1, and down 4 percent from last year. Breeding inventory, at 590,000 head, was down 30,000 from the previous quarter, and down 70,000 from last year. Market hog inventory, at 4.61 million head, was down 1 percent from last quarter, and down 3 percent from last year.

In Michigan, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 1.2 million head, down 30,000 head from a year ago, according to Marlo D. Johnson, Great Lakes Regional director for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Breeding hog inventory, at 110,000 head, was down 5,000 from last September.

Michigan’s market hog inventory, at 1.09 million head, was down 2 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the June-to-August quarter was 10.9, compared to 10.8 from the same period last year.

In Ohio, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 2.7 million head, up 150,000 head from a year ago, said State Statistician Cheryl Turner. Breeding hog inventory, at 190,000 head, was unchanged from last September.

Ohio’s market hog inventory, at 2.51 million head, was up 6 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the June-to-August quarter was 11.4, compared to 10.2 from the same period last year. (Kentucky and Tennessee were not included in the report).

Kalo said Mexico is helping to keep the U.S. ham market strong.

“It’s been extremely firm in part because Mexico is buying significant volumes,” he said. “They still prefer to buy U.S. pork. It’s a relatively inexpensive protein for them. Some other currencies have lost a lot of value versus the U.S. dollar, but not the peso.”

In the wake of the recent avian flu outbreak, he said, “The demand for hams is very strong. I think the industry is still positioned to supply the market pretty well through the fourth quarter.”

Looking ahead, he said for producers to have a reason to expand and send more pork to market.

“The uncertainty remaining with Prop. 12 (which bans the sale of meat and eggs from animals raised using certain kinds of extreme confinement), in my mind, is something we should all be concerned about because all it does is increase costs for everyone,” he said. “So, short term, we should have plenty of pork, but we have some big question marks for 2023, depending on those exports.”

Franken said, “Consistent with that pattern, prices are forecast to drop to an average of $92.85/cwt (hundredweight) for the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a balancing of expectations for both lower supplies and exports for the near term.

“For 2023, prices are forecast to average $91.19/cwt (hundredweight) in the first quarter and then rise seasonally to $99.41/cwt (hundredweight), and $101.28/cwt (hundredweight) in the second and third quarters,” he added. “However, if supplies prove larger than anticipated or exports continue to soften, lower prices may be realized.”