Families can expect to pay record high prices at the grocery store for turkey this holiday season, thanks to the impacts of the bird flu and inflation. Inflation has hit the poultry industry hard. In addition, roughly 6 million birds died during the recent bird flu outbreak. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed turkey and egg costs in their latest Market Intel.

The retail price for fresh boneless, skinless turkey breast reached a record high of $6.70 per pound in October, 112 percent higher than the same time in 2021 when prices were $3.16 per pound. The previous record high price was $5.88 per pound in November 2015, during the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak of 2015, when 50.5 million birds died.

According to the USDA, about 14 percent of the nation’s total turkey population was hit by the rampant spread of the virus this year. The avian flu has spread to 27 states, sharply driving up egg prices as well.

While egg prices have come down from record highs in July, the average price for a dozen grade-A eggs is $2.34, 27 percent higher than the same time in 2021, and 44 percent above the five-year average of $1.29.

More than 85 percent of the cases of bird flu this year can be traced to wild bird introductions, compared to about 30 percent of the cases in 2015.

The virus largely originates with wild birds, which can infect all kinds of poultry via their droppings when they fly over farms. But turkeys seem uniquely vulnerable, according to California State Veterinarian Annette Jones. As hundreds of millions of wild birds migrate southward across North America in the fall, broilers and laying hens can be stowed indoors in barns out of harm’s way. Many turkeys are pasture raised, without indoor accommodations for all those big birds. According to Jones, “it could also be that the virus has mutated in such a way that turkeys are a better host.”

Experts also say that higher feed and fuel costs, and labor shortages have also impacted the price of turkeys.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the virus poses a negligible health threat to humans. Only one confirmed human infection has been reported thus far, and that was someone who was working closely with stricken fowl.