WASHINGTON, D.C. – Of all the information contained in several USDA reports released earlier this month, a Purdue University agricultural economist said a few numbers stood out to him.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released reports for crop production, grain stocks and winter wheat seedings Jan. 12. USDA also released the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Last year’s corn and soybean production was lower than expected, as were corn exports, Michael Langemeier said.

The drop in corn and soybean production was “a bit of a surprise for the industry,” he noted. “Corn harvested acres were down. The severe drought in the Western Corn Belt probably had an impact on harvested acreage. Soybeans in particular were disappointing. Going into the year, the thought was soybean production would be much stronger. Given the challenges we had with weather, it’s not unusual to see these kind of numbers but this was a surprise.”

Last year’s corn crop was 13.7 billion bushels, NASS said, down from 15.1 billion in 2021. The average yield was 173.3 bushels per acre, down 3.4 bushels from 2021’s record. Harvested acreage was 79.2 million, down from more than 85 million in 2021.

For soybeans, the crop was nearly 4.3 billion bushels, down from 4.5 billion the previous year. The average yield was 49.5 bushels, down 2.2 bushels from 2021. Harvested acreage was 86.3 million, up slightly from 2021.

USDA lowered corn export numbers for the 2022-2023 crop to 1.9 billion bushels from nearly 2.1 billion estimated in December. “Exports on corn are running behind,” Langemeier said. “That’s concerning because if exports don’t pick up, we’ll have larger ending stocks to begin next year. We do still export a lot of corn as 14 percent of our crop is exported. We’re the largest exporter of corn in the world. But (the drop in export numbers) is concerning to the market.”

Corn ending stocks, at 1.24 billion bushels, were down from the USDA’s December estimate of nearly 1.26 billion. The trade was looking for something higher, said Todd Hultman, DTN lead analyst. Corn stocks as of Dec. 1, at 10.8 billion bushels, were also lower than expected, he said.

As of Jan. 5, the United States had shipped 409 million bushels of corn, down 32 percent from this time last year. Total commitments were down 47 percent.

“Corn exports, this is what’s gotten a lot of attention and it’s been very disappointing so far this year,” Hultman explained. “The current pace we’re on is still well below not only last year’s pace but also the four-year average. Corn exports just have not had the activity this year that they normally do this time of year.”

He said he expects a few months of better U.S. exports as Brazil’s corn supply goes down and Argentina’s corn crop is dealing with drought-related problems.

NASS put soybean exports at 1.99 billion bushels, down from 2.05 billion in December.

“That’s a little bit surprising to me because the export sale pace has been doing quite well and has a good chance to come in still at the previous estimated level,” Hultman stated.

Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 210 million bushels, down from 220 million in December. Soybean stocks as of Dec. 1 were 3 billion bushels, less than what the trade expected and the second lowest number in six years, he said.

Soybean exports as of Jan. 5 were nearly 1.1 billion bushels, down 8 percent from a year ago. Total commitments were up 5 percent from last year.

The U.S. is about 420 million bushels short of USDA’s original export estimate with seven and a half months left in the season, Hultman pointed out. “There’s nothing yet be discouraging about the export pace for soybeans but keep in mind we do have a record crop on the way from Brazil. That will slow things down for the U.S. dramatically here pretty soon.”

Winter wheat acreage nationwide was projected to be 37 million acres, up 11 percent from last year’s 33.3 million, NASS said. Farmers seeded 25.3 million acres of hard red winter (up 10 percent), 7.9 million of soft red winter (up 20 percent) and 3.7 million of white winter (up 3 percent).

Wheat ending stocks, estimated at 567 million bushels, were down from 571 million in December. Wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 were 1.3 billion bushels, lower than expected, Hultman said. First half wheat demand was nearly 1.2 billion bushels, down 4 percent from a year ago.

The demand side of wheat has been a concern, he said, as wheat exports have been sluggish. USDA’s wheat export number was 775 million bushels, unchanged from December.

The average farm price for corn was $6.70 a bushel, unchanged from December. USDA raised the price for soybeans from $14 in December to $14.20. The wheat price, at $9.10, was unchanged from December.