MCHENRY, Ill. – Growers in Farm World’s primary readership area could have good weather for spring planting, barring any changes in forecast conditions, the president of World Weather, Inc. said recently.

Precipitation in the Midwest is expected to be below normal this spring, Drew Lerner said.

“Please do not get too far ahead of me,” he said. “I am not suggesting drought in the spring of 2023 in the Midwest. I am telling you that there will be lighter than normal precipitation in those areas. Now lighter than normal precipitation can be a huge plus for farmers across the Midwest, the (Mississippi) Delta and the Tennessee basin, because what it suggests is that the rain will be less frequent and less excessive than what it’s been in recent years, which means planting will be able to advance really quickly and that means we can get these crops in early.

“If the pattern with the below normal precipitation in the spring does give way to a more normal summer weather pattern, we could have some very good yields occurring across parts of the country.”

Temperatures will also be a key factor in planting conditions, he added. Overall across the country, “there’s no excessive heat (expected),” Lerner said. “There’s some warmer tendencies in the Plains and maybe a part of the Delta and the southeast, but nothing dramatic. There’s actually a little cooler bias in the northern parts of the country.”

During Allendale, Inc.’s annual AgLeader Winter Conference Series on Jan. 24, Lerner presented his forecasts for temperatures and precipitation in the spring and summer.

Spring temperatures will be near to below normal in Michigan and northern areas of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and in most of the eastern half of Iowa. They will be near to above normal in Tennessee and normal in the rest of the region.

Precipitation will be below normal or near to below normal in the entire region except for western Iowa, which will be near to above normal.

From June through August, Lerner has forecast temperatures near to below normal in Michigan, northern Ohio and the northern third of Indiana. Near to above normal temperatures are forecast for southwestern Iowa, far western Kentucky and most of Tennessee. Normal temperatures are forecast for the rest of the region.

Precipitation over the period was forecast to be normal with pockets of near to below normal in southern Tennessee, northern Kentucky, southern parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, far eastern Iowa and western Iowa.

January precipitation in the Midwest helped with drought conditions in some parts of the region, he pointed out.

In November, most of the region had below normal precipitation, Lerner said. In December, more moisture occurred in most of Iowa, northern Illinois and a good portion of Tennessee, though the rest of the region was still dry.

Over the first 20 days of January, most areas in the region were able to catch up in moisture, he added.

“Notice the above normal precipitation in a big part of the Midwest during the month of January,” he said. “That has been helpful and we’re going to see more moisture occurring for a little while longer in the lower and eastern parts of the Midwest, the Delta and southeastern states. You should be getting the idea that we’re seeing a little bit of relief to the persistent dry-biased environment and indeed that is the case. La Nina continues to weaken and will lose some of that influence for that particular phenomenon.”

The January precipitation has bolstered topsoil and subsoil moisture levels in most of the region, Lerner said. As of Jan. 20, average seven-day topsoil and subsoil moisture levels had improved, except in most of the western half of Iowa.

“These trends must continue to ensure drought is breaking down,” he explained. “The next several weeks will be of great importance in determining how much dryness will still be around when spring arrives.”

Lerner also looked at weather conditions in South America.

In Brazil, soil moisture was plentiful at the time of the conference. “There has not been a tremendous amount of problem weather this season,” he said. “A boost in area planted and good weather should translate into favorable production potential.”

As for Argentina, parts of the country saw significant rainfall over the Jan. 21-22 weekend, and more was expected over the next 10 days or so.

“That region’s moisture profile was so critically low prior to that precipitation that multiple rain events are needed to end drought and restore soil moisture,” Lerner noted.