BLOOMINGTON, Ill. — Farm Futures’ annual prospective planting survey projects that U.S. corn acres will decrease by 1.1 percent to 87 million acres in 2023, while soybean acres are expected to increase by 2.5 percent to 89.6 million acres. Among the reasons for the increase in bean acreage is soybean’s proven resilience to stress and yield loss brought on by drought-like, summer weather conditions. Lower input costs associated with soybean cultivation compared to that of corn is another factor, according to a recent Farm Futures survey of growers.

The Farm Futures survey of 801 growers from across the U.S., conducted March 4-14 via email, found that farmers are opting for more drought-resistant crops this spring. Depleted soil moisture levels presented a substantial challenge for farmers who are concerned about the upcoming 2023 growing season, respondents indicated.

The scenario sets up a chance for a record-setting U.S. soybean harvest, according to Ron Kindred, vice-chairman of the Illinois Soybean Association (ISA). “With this increase in soybean acres being planted comes an expected increase in harvested acres this fall” said Kindred in a May 16 ISA news release. 

“Soybeans are a hearty crop and can withstand drier conditions. So, when we have these unfavorable conditions throughout the Midwest, opting to plant more soybeans is a safe choice to ensure a farm remains profitable.”

Farm Futures’ projection of 87.7 million acres would be the smallest U.S. corn acreage planted since 86.4 million acres were planted in 2009. It would be just the third time in history (1983 and 2018) in which planted corn acres came in lower than soybean acres.

The projection stands in stark contrast to USDA’s March Prospective Planting report, which estimated corn planted area for 2023 at 92.0 million acres, up four percent from last year, and soybean planted area at 87.5 million acres, up just slightly from 2022. 

“Talking with Illinois farmers this spring, they’re staying on track to keep their rotations in place with corn and soybean acres. It’ll be interesting to see how acres divide at the end of the planting season,” said Abigail Peterson, ISA Director of Agronomy.

USDA predicts Illinois farmers will plant 11 million acres of corn in Illinois in 2023, up from 10.8 million acres planted in 2022. Indiana growers are expected to plant 5.5 million acres of corn in 2023, up from 5.25 million in 2022, while Ohio farmers are projected to plant 3.45 million acres of corn, an increase of 50,000 acres over last year.

As for soybeans, USDA’s projections have Illinois farmers planting 10.8 million acres in 2023, which is unchanged from 2022. Indiana producers are expected to plant 5.6 million acres of soybeans in 2023, which would be a decrease from the 5.85 million acres planted in 2022. In Ohio, farmers are projected to plant 5.1 million soybean acres, unchanged from 2022, according to USDA. 

In the Prairie State, planting progress and emergence is ahead of schedule in most — but not all — areas. According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), corn planted in Illinois had reached 84 percent, compared to the 5-year average of 63 percent, by the week ending May 14. Corn emerged had reached 45 percent, compared to the 5-year average of 34 percent. Soybeans planted reached 77 percent, compared to the 5-year average of 45 percent. Soybeans emerged reached 38 percent compared to the 5-year average of 18 percent. In addition, NASS reported that winter wheat “headed” was at 74 percent, compared to the 5-year average of 56 percent, on May 14.

On May 19, University of Illinois Extension agriculture educator Talon Becker said conditions in central Illinois were conducive to farmers finishing their planting at an earlier than usual date. “Most fields in the area are planted and emerged. The crop looks to be off to a good start in most fields, with the exception of a few low spots where water is or was recently standing following the rains earlier this month. With minimal rain and some warmer temperatures in the near-term forecast, farmers in the area will likely finish up any planting and replanting they have to do in the next week or so,” Becker said of conditions in and around Champaign County.

In Monroe County south of St. Louis, however, a lack of timely and widespread precipitation is causing concern for some growers. “Most of our area has finally received some rainfall over the last week, but it has been scattered and highly variable,” reported Nathan Johanning, Extension commercial agriculture educator. 

“I have had reports of a few tenths to a few inches across the county. Much of the area has gotten about three-fourths to one inch, however, there is a band through the central part of the county that has only gotten a few tenths at best and even that was scattered across multiple days. I have a corn demonstration plot planted May 3 that after two weeks has barely emerged, and soybeans planted that same time, again with very spotty emergence. Widespread rain is greatly needed. For those that have caught rain, crops responded almost overnight in growth,” Johanning added. (Becker, T. “Illinois Crop Update – May 19, 2023.” Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois)