AMES, Iowa – Despite the dryness starting to show up in reports, crop conditions are generally still good, according to Dennis Todey, agricultural meteorologist and USDA Midwest Climate Hub director.

“Corn and winter wheat conditions reports in the eastern Corn Belt states have shown a decline in condition since (the first week in June),” he said. “Local reports are indicating stress showing on corn and soybeans. These are not a major concern right now because stress on a crop now does not relate to yield loss.

“But if we do not see improvement in the next few weeks, we could start seeing yield impacts,” he added. “Winter wheat may be losing some yield, given it is heading over much of the area.”

He said National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) soil moisture reports have greatly increased in the Short-Very Short category (soil moisture supplies that are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development).

“This is in response to widespread lack of rain over the last one to two months, and higher evaporative demand from the atmosphere,” he said. “Soil surfaces are drying quickly. Crops are not far enough along to be pulling moisture from deeper in the profile.”

He said Michigan is reporting 88 percent (in the Short-Very Short category) in NASS soil moisture, which, he added, “is well above anything we have seen in the last 20 years at this time of year.

“Grasses, pasture, and hay have shown the most stress so far,” he said. “The limited growth is a problem in areas like Missouri, which have had a longer dry period over the past several years, leading to a lack of forage. Cattle numbers are being considered as to how many to keep because even trying to locate hay is a problem.

“Disease issues have been down,” he added. “But some increased insect issues have been noted. Less effectual weed applications have been noted because of the dry conditions. Also, nitrogen burning may be a problem because of the dryness.”

Justin Glisan, Iowa state climatologist, said current short-term outlooks are signaling higher probabilities of warmer temperatures across the Corn Belt, and into the Appalachians, along with near-normal rainfall potential.

“Temperatures over the next three weeks also look to be above normal, with no clear signal on the precipitation side,” he said. “Crop conditions are progressing well, with corn and beans across the region ahead of the five-year average.

“Recent warmth, drier air and increased vegetative demand on soil profiles has led to rapid onset drought from eastern Iowa through the eastern Corn Belt,” he added. “Increased rain chances over the next seven days (June 8-15), especially in the eastern Corn Belt, should help alleviate less-intense drought conditions.”

In Indiana, excellent fieldwork conditions spurred corn and soybean planting progress closer to completion, according to State Statistician Nathanial Warenski.

“Crop conditions remained relatively stable, despite a continued lack of precipitation for much of the state,” he said. “Planting progress for both corn and soybeans were all but complete, with both crops wrapping up ahead of their respective five-year averages. Excellent fieldwork conditions throughout the state continued to push first cuttings of alfalfa and other hay ahead of their respective five-year averages.”

In Illinois, corn emerged reached 91 percent, compared to the five-year average of 78 percent. Soybeans planted reached 96 percent, compared to the five-year average of 77 percent. 

Winter wheat headed was 98 percent, compared to the five-year average of 94 percent. Winter wheat condition was rated 3 percent very poor, 6 percent poor, 26 percent fair, 49 percent good, and 16 percent excellent.

In Michigan, lack of precipitation had producers concerned about crop progress and condition, according to Marlo D. Johnson, NASS Great Lakes Regional Office director.

“According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, counties in the north-central and in the Southeast experienced abnormally dry conditions,” she said. “First cuttings of hay were ahead of historical averages. Corn and soybeans that were planted later were slow to emerge due to the dry conditions.

“Dry bean planting was in full force,” she added. “Sugarbeet, barley and oat condition were mainly rated good to fair. Winter wheat headed made favorable progress and remained ahead of historical trends. Producers reported concerns for field and pasture growth. There has been very little precipitation in the past few weeks, and there is very little precipitation in the immediate forecast.”

In Ohio, while skies remained dry and temperatures soared, farmers nearly completed their intended plantings, the state’s report said. Dry conditions persisted across many northern and western counties, with the U.S. Drought Monitor rating 74.1 percent of the state as abnormally dry.

Corn and soybean planting reached 95 and 94 percent, respectively. Winter wheat was 89 percent headed and 1 percent mature. Winter Wheat crop condition was rated 64 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Oat progress advanced to 92 percent planted, 83 percent emerged, and 22 percent headed. 

In Kentucky, corn planting is nearing completion, while soybeans continue to run ahead when compared historically, the state’s report said.

The average height of corn is 12 inches at this point and the condition of the crop is mostly good. There are reports of corn twisting and signs of stress on the crop. Like corn, soybean condition is mostly good at this time, but there has been some replanting due to the presence of slugs.

Winter wheat condition remains mostly good, with 60 percent of the crop coloring. Wheat harvest will begin soon with rapid dry down conditions. Pasture condition is mostly good; however, heat and dry weather are taking a toll with regrowth stunted. Although weather has allowed hay cutting, regrowth is very slow. Hay yields are widely varied, with dry weather cited for low production in some areas.

In Tennessee, a general rain in West Tennessee would be very beneficial as corn and soybeans are starting to show signs of stress and in some areas twisting, especially those crops in early development stages, the state’s report said. Thrip (tiny, slender insects with fringed wings) populations in cotton were reported as high. Irrigation pivots were being used extensively.

Many areas of Central Tennessee need rain. Soil conditions are drying and there are still corn and soybean fields to be planted. Corn and soybeans were starting to show stress due to lack of rain. A lot of hay has been put up and initially thought to be short. The Eastern Region is also in need of rain. With the dry weather, farmers cut hay, and report that yields are highly variable.

Todey said, “The outlook is interesting. The 8-14 day outlook is showing the potential for a ridge of high pressure to build into the central U.S. Some risk of extreme heat in the south central U.S. is possible. Precipitation signals are somewhat weak.

“Dryness has a slightly better chance of persisting around the Great Lakes,” he said. “Areas outside the Lakes have slightly better chances for precipitation.

“I think we are going to continue to be touch-and-go here, with spotty areas continuing to get precipitation,” he added. “There are no indications of a big improvement. But also no indications that we are locked into drought either.”

He said the early-season dryness will help develop root systems that can extract available moisture.

“But we need to get some additional moisture,” he said. “And that warm area in the central U.S. could increase stress for a while. We are officially in an El Niño advisory now, so (we’re) watching how that impacts what we are expecting to see for the rest of the summer.”