SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — Even though he was enjoying attending the 95th Illinois FFA Convention, Illinois Farm Bureau President Richard Guebert, Jr. couldn’t help but spend some time talking about the weather with fellow farmers and ag media. 

“We’ve had very good fortune the past couple of years with good crops and good harvests, but we’re going to be in dire straits if we don’t get some rain not only in southwestern Illinois (where Guebert farms) but all over the state,” Guebert told Farm World on Thursday, June 15. 

Following a largely dry May, central Illinois experienced a “notable” heat wave from June 13-16 with highs in the 90s each day, the National Weather Service reported. A “handful” of record warm low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s were tied or broken in Springfield, Peoria and elsewhere during the three-day period, according to the NWS.

Guebert noted that early-planted beans on his farm have shown little growth since emerging several weeks ago. He’s concerned the plants won’t develop strong root systems or mature properly without immediate and continued precipitation and cooler temps. “We’ve got hilly ground in Randolph County and clay hillsides. Those beans have not come up yet. Where they have come up, they are in dire (need) for rain,” Guebert said. 

“We are far from having the (soybean) rows closed, I can tell you that. The plants are about three inches tall and crying for rain,” he added. 

Though plants are not growing in the heat, weeds seem to be flourishing on the farm bureau leader’s farm. Insect pressure seems more intense, Guebert said, though hay has yet to be cut and ditches and pond borders have yet to be mowed this year. 

“We’re seeing more insect pressure and we’re kind of worried about the hay being mowed for livestock and cattle operations. Those grasshoppers and insects are going to be moving into the bean fields and corn fields and looking for an easy lunch alongside the deer,” he said. 

Not only are things ultra-dry in Guebert’s Randolph County, farmers from around the state are reporting similar conditions to the farm bureau office. Guebert described conditions around the state as “dry…just dry.”  

A trip to Washington, D.C. earlier in the week allowed Guebert to meet with farm leaders from across the Corn Belt and Plains states who shared similar stories of withered beans, curled-up corn husks and scorched wheat. “The drought started out west and is moving slowly eastward, so we’ll see where things land. A buddy in Nevada mowing hay said they are really, really short this year,” he said. 

Guebert also weighed in on whether he thinks farmers will follow their usual rotations and plant more corn this year, as initial USDA projections indicated, or make a switch to soybeans due to market factors and soybeans’ greater resilience to heat stress — as per Farm Futures’ 2023 survey of farmer planting intentions. 

“With the input costs that we saw last year I think we’re seeing more people roll back again to beans. If they have marginal corn acres, those are going to beans rather than back into corn again. The price for corn is not where it was a year ago, but we’ll have to see. If we don’t get rain, I can sure tell you we’re not going to have a record corn crop,” said Guebert.

With speculation swirling in the markets over whether the current Midwest drought will affect crop futures, Guebert said he would expect USDA to ratchet down their initial projection for a record, 92 million acre U.S. corn harvest this fall. “I would hope so,” he said. “We’re looking at crop ratings right now and we are going to start seeing some deterioration. The drought monitor is really starting to expand, so we’ll have to see if we get a front coming through that can bring us some rain.”

Guebert said the markets are “very curious” about the prospect of a diminished harvest this year due to the drought, with traders monitoring state crop condition reports as they are issued. “They’re watching the reports, they’re watching the weather forecasts and from what we’ve seen the last three or four days the corn and the bean market has responded pretty well. We need the markets to continue to increase a little bit. I’m sure there is still some on-farm corn and beans that needs to go to town that farmers are hanging on to in order to see if there’s a price rally with the lack of rainfall this spring,” said Guebert.