As expected, the USDA left the production side of the U.S. balance sheets unchanged this month. This kept the U.S. corn crop at 15.265 billion bu (bbu). Old crop exports were reduced by 50 million bu (mbu) and imports were cut 15 mbu to give us a carryout estimate of 1.452 bbu. These numbers carried through new crop to give us an ending stocks projection of 2.257 bbu. This puts the new crop stocks to use at 15.6 percent and removes all need for rationing at this time. The average cash values on corn were left at $6.60 on old crop and $4.80 on new crop.

No changes were made to U.S. soybean production this month either. This kept production at 4.51 bbu. The only change to demand was a reduction to old crop exports of 15 mbu and this took ending stocks to 230 mbu. New crop ending stocks were estimated at 350 mbu and this took the stocks to use to 7.9 percent. This is just above where price rationing is needed. The old crop cash value on soybeans is now at $14.20 and new crop is at $12.10.

For the domestic wheat data, the USDA left the 2022/23 carryout at 598 mbu. We did see the 2023/24 crop bumped up 6 mbu for a total of 1.665 bbu. No changes were made to new crop demand but ending stocks for the 2023/24 marketing year are still forecast to shrink to 562 mbu. This is a historically tight stocks to use of 30.6 percent. Average cash projections on wheat are $8.85 for the old crop year and $7.70 for 2023/24.

More changes were made to the global balance sheets with all ending stocks increasing. For the 2022/23 marketing year, the USDA has world ending stocks at 297.6 million metric tons (mmt) on corn, 101.3 mmt for soybeans, and 266.7 mmt on wheat. Ending stocks for the 2023/24 marketing year were all higher as global crop expectations rose from month to month. Larger corn crops in Ukraine and Brazil were enough to push new crop ending stocks to 314 mmt. An increase to the Brazilian soybean crop bumped world ending stocks to 123.3 mmt. Wheat production is expected to be large enough in Russia, the EU, and India to raise carryout of that grain to 270.7 mmt. These numbers had more of an impact on market reaction than the domestic side.

The USDA also increased Brazilian production estimates and lowered those in Argentina which is what trade was expecting, although the changes were on the low side of guesses. The USDA increased Brazil’s corn crop by 2 mmt to a total of 132 mmt. Brazil’s soybean crop was raised 1 mmt to total 156 mmt. In Argentina both the corn and soybean crops were lowered by 2 mmt. This put corn at 35 mmt and soybeans at 25 mmt.

Beef production for the U.S. was estimated at 27.09 billion pounds for 2023, an increase of 170 million pounds from last month. Beef production for 2024 is projected at 24.8 billion pounds, which was up 50 million pounds on the month. Pork production was left unchanged from last month on both years, keeping it at 27.38 billion pounds for 2023 and 27.35 billion pounds for 2024. The average steer value price forecast for 2024 jumped $7.75 per hundredweight to $180.00. The hog price forecast was unchanged at $61.50.

Beef exports held steady on the month with estimates of 3.22 billion pounds for 2023 and 295 billion pounds for 2024. The USDA also left the 2024 beef import forecast unchanged at 3.56 billion pounds. Pork exports for 2023 increased 300 million pounds from last month to total 6.8 billion, and 2024 exports were raised 500 million pounds to total 6.82 billion.

Economic data out of China has cast a negative shadow across several markets. Chinese data showed the country’s exports for the month of May were down 7.5 percent from May 2022. This decline followed a year-to-year increase in April of 8.5 percent and was the first reduction in three months. This slow down shows the rest of the world is not buying as many Chinese products and an indication that consumer spending has slowed.

Others are also seeing declines to exports, including South Korea where demand was down 15.2 percent in May. The United States has also seen a decline in exports, with April exports down 3.6 percent from the previous year. Economists believe some of the reduction in consumer spending may be a correction from the record high demand that took place during the COVID pandemic.

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