As expected, the USDA did trim the U.S. corn yield estimate in the July WASDE report but by a lower volume than trade was anticipating. The average U.S. corn yield estimate now stands at 177.5 bushels per acre, down four bushels from June. Total crop size was bumped up to 15.32 billion bu (bbu) though as harvested acres increased 2.2 million following the June planted acres revision. This level of production was above the average trade estimate, and given the recent improvement to crop conditions, we may see an even higher production number in August.

Old crop ending stocks were left unchanged at 1.4 bbu, down 50 million bu (mbu) from June. The USDA reduced ethanol demand by 25 mbu and exports by 75 mbu for this year, but increased feed and residual by 150 mbu to reflect the tighter June quarterly stocks. New crop ending stocks are now estimated at 2.26 bbu, up slightly from last month. No changes were made to new crop corn demand. The stocks to use on 2023/24 corn now stands at 15.6 percent and requires no rationing. The average new crop corn value was left unchanged this month at $4.80.

The USDA left the average U.S. soybean yield unchanged this month at 52 bushels per acre. This is expected to give us a crop of 4.3 bbu, which was at the top end of trade guesses. Harvested acres were trimmed on soybeans to reflect the data from the June revisions, which gave us the smaller crop. The only change to old crop soybean demand was a 20 mbu reduction to exports. This put 2022/23 ending stocks at 255 mbu, up 25 mbu from June. A large 125 mbu reduction to 2023/24 exports negated much of the lower production figure but still lowered ending stocks to an even 300 mbu. This is a 7 percent stocks to use and right at the level where price rationing would be warranted. The average new crop soybean price projection increased 30 cents this month to $12.40 per bushel.

The final balance sheet update on the 2022/23 wheat crop 31 mbu increase to feed and residual demand and a decrease to exports of 16 mbu. This was enough to trim wheat ending stocks to 580 mbu for the year. The 2023/24 wheat production figure increased 74 mbu from the elevated acreage figure to give us a crop of 1.74 bbu. New crop wheat balance sheets showed a demand increase of 20 mbu from feed and residual to put ending stocks at 592 mbu. This was up 31 mbu from June and gave us a stocks to use ratio of 31.9 percent. The average wheat price estimate declined 20 cents this month to $7.50 per bushel.

South American production was little changed this month. The Brazilian corn crop estimate increased 1 million metric ton (mmt) to 133 mmt and the Argentine crop was lowered 1 mmt to 34 mmt. Soybean production was left unchanged at 25 mmt for Argentine and 156 mmt for Brazil.

Global ending stocks for the 2023/24 marketing year were little changed from June this month. The corn reserve is estimated at 314.4 mmt, equal to the average trade guess and up slightly from last month. World soybean ending stocks equaled trade estimates at 121 mbu, down 2.3 mmt from last month. The world wheat carryout this year is projected at 266.5 mmt, down 4.2 mmt from last month.

Beef and pork balance sheets showed little change from last month. Beef production for 2023 now stands at 27.16 billion pounds and 2024 production is forecast at 24.7 billion pounds. Pork production is projected at 27.37 billion pounds for 2023 and 27.34 billion pounds for 2024. The average steer value is now at $183.50, and hogs are at $64.75. These are increases of $3.50 and $3.25 respectively from last month.

Beef exports are now estimated at 3.2 billion pounds for 2023 and 2.95 billion pounds for 2024. Beef imports are projected at 3.52 billion pounds this year and 3.56 billion pounds for 2024 to help satisfy consumer demand for cheaper cuts of meat. Pork exports are projected at 6.9 billion pounds for this year and 6.98 billion pounds for 2024.

The U.S. soybean crush industry is once again a main market topic. Crush margins have started fall and are now at the lowest level in three weeks at just over 40 cents per bushel. Building soy oil supplies and lower than hoped for biodiesel demand are behind the lower crush returns.

There are some questions surrounding the future of the U.S. crush industry. For one we have seen crush plants that were in the planning and future building stages put on hold. This came as China announced they would be cutting back on soy oil imports by 60 percent, although no reason was given as to why. At the same time there are requests being made that the U.S. limit or totally remove the use of used cooking oil in biofuel refining. Both of these factors could change the entire outlook of the U.S. crush industry.