DES MOINES, Iowa – Last month’s hog numbers were slightly higher than pre-report estimates, up about 80,000 head from June 2022, but down 1 percent from the previous quarter, according to agricultural economists analyzing the June 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, the report said total U.S. hog and pig inventory for the second quarter of 2023 was 72.394 million head.

“All hogs and pigs, 72.4 million head, was pretty much in line with what we saw last year, but also kind of following the decline that we’ve seen for the last few years here,” said Tyler Cozzens, an agricultural economist with the Lakewood, Colo.-based Livestock Marketing Information Center, in a June 29 teleconference with reporters.

The report said U.S. market hog inventory was at 66.2 million head, up 0.2 percent from last year, but down 1 percent from March 2023.

“Like total inventories, market hogs are also slightly higher year-over-year, compared to expectations for slight declines,” said Jason Franken, Western Illinois University professor of agricultural economics.

The report added the U.S. breeding inventory, at 6.15 million head, was down slightly from last year, but up 1 percent from the previous quarter.

“The breeding herd, however, is close to pre-report expectations for a less-than-1-percent decline,” Franken said.

The report said the March-May 2023 pig crop, at 32.9 million head, was up 1 percent from 2022. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.9 million head, down 2 percent from 2022. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.

United States hog producers intend to have 2.94 million sows farrow during the June-August 2023 quarter, down 4 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 4 percent from the same period two years earlier.

Intended farrowings for September-November 2023, at 2.95 million sows, are down 4 percent from the same period one year earlier, and down 3 percent from the same period two years earlier, the report said.

“That’s the lowest farrowings that we’ve had on a quarterly basis here, going back to about 2015, so definitely one of the lower farrowing rates that we’ve seen here,” Cozzens said. “But even the intentions that producers are signaling here, still around that 2.9-million head, well below what analysts were expecting.

“That pretty much indicates the kind of sentiment producers are taking: a measured approach to production, watching demand and market signals about how to manage production, and manage their resource base,” he added. “And I think it also was just a reflection of profitability in the market.”

The report said the average pigs saved per litter was 11.36 for the March-May period, a 3.3 percent climb, compared to 11.00 last year.

“Disease pressure has been an issue in the industry and really hindered some efficiency there on that side,” Cozzens said. “So, I think to see a significant jump like this is a positive sign (the) industry is moving forward.”

Overall, the number of hogs weighing less than 180 pounds is about 0.24 percent larger than a year ago, which will be the market hogs arriving at processing plants from July through November 2023, Franken said.

“The increase in lighter weight hogs partly reflects that the March-through-May pig crop is 0.78 percent larger than last year, despite expectations it would be 0.70 percent smaller,” he said.

“Expectations would have been a little closer to correct had a 2.4 percent decline in sows farrowed not been partly offset by 3.3 percent more pigs saved per litter, which suggests the industry is overcoming health issues like PRRS (porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome) that had been constraining growth in pigs saved per litter,” he added.

The report added Iowa had the nation’s largest inventory, with 23.8 million head; Minnesota had the second largest at 8.7 million head, and North Carolina was third with 7.6 million head.

In Indiana, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 4.35 million head, up 50,000 from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 260,000 head, was up 4 percent from last June. Market hog inventory, at 4.09 million head, was up 1 percent from last year.

In Illinois, total hog and pig inventory was 5.4 million head, up 1 percent from March 1, and up 3 percent from last year. Breeding inventory, at 670,000 head, was up 20,000 from the previous quarter, and up 50,000 from last year. Market hog inventory, at 4.73 million head, was up 1 percent from last quarter, and up 2 percent from last year.

In Michigan, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 1.21 million head, up 30,000 head from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 115,000 head, was up 5,000 from last June. Market hog inventory, at 1.10 million head, was up 2 percent from last year.

In Ohio, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 2.5 million head, down 100,000 head from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 180,000 head, was unchanged from last June. Market hog inventory, at 2.32 million head, was down 4 percent from last year. (Kentucky and Tennessee’s hog numbers were not tallied in the report).

The USDA estimated U.S. pork exports in the second quarter of 2023 to be 1.73 billion pounds, or 7.5 percent higher than last year, and forecasts the last two quarters of 2023 to be 6.7 percent, and 6.9 percent higher, respectively, placing the annual total at 7.3 percent above last year.

The first quarter of 2024 is forecast to be 1.745 billion pounds, or about 4.6 percent higher than in the first quarter of 2023.

“Overall, with the outlook for hog prices, current costs of production exceeding $100/cwt. (one hundredweight) on a carcass basis, and prospects for higher feed costs, producers will need to be vigilant with risk management of input and output prices to find their way out of red ink and into the black,” Franken said.