Several changes were made to domestic corn balance sheets in the August WASDE report, but all were within trade expectations. Corn yield was trimmed 2.4 bushels per acre for an average of 175.1 bushels. This put total production at 15.11 billion bu (bbu), down 209 million bu (mbu) from July. On the demand side, 2022/23 usage was reduced 45 mbu from lower exports and industrial use. Corn imports were also bumped up 10 mbu. This raised old crop ending stocks 55 mbu to total 1.457 bbu. Demand for the 2023/24 crop was cut 95 mbu between exports, feed and residual, and industrial usage. The added old crop bushels and this lower new crop demand negated much of the corn production loss to keep ending stocks at 2.2 bbu. This is a 15.3 percent stocks to use ratio and leads to a new crop average price projection of $4.90.

The U.S. soybean yield was also trimmed in the August balance sheets for an average of 50.9 bushels an acre, down 1.1 bushels from July. This is forecast to produce a crop of 4.2 bbu, 95 mbu less than last month. On the demand side, the only alteration to old crop was a 5 mbu increase in imports, which put ending stocks at 260 mbu. For new crop, the USDA also raised imports by 10 mbu and trimmed exports by 25 mbu. The combination of these changes put 2023/24 ending stocks at 245 mbu, down 55 mbu from July. This lowered the new crop stocks to use ratio to 5.8 percent and an average price projection of $12.70. Any further reduction to U.S. soybean production will bring equal reductions to demand from this point.

Only minimal changes were made to domestic wheat balance sheets this month. The average U.S. wheat yield was trimmed to 45.8 bushels an acre, down 0.3 bushels from July. An increase of 100,000 harvested acres offset much of this yield loss to give the US a total wheat crop of 1.734 bbu, just 5 mbu less than last month’s estimate. On the demand side, feed use was lowered 3 mbu and exports were cut 25 mbu. This allowed ending stocks to increase 23 mbu from July to total 615 mbu. U.S. wheat stocks to use ratio now stands at 33.6 percent with an average price projection of $7.50.

The global side of the monthly report gave us reductions to ending stocks across the board, but these were all within trade estimates as well. World carryout for 2023/24 on corn now stands at 311.1 mmt, down 3 mmt from July. Global soybean carryout is projected at 119.4 mmt, down 2.6 mmt on the month. World wheat reserves are estimated at 265.6 mmt, 1 mmt less than last month.

No changes to projected 2023/24 Brazil and Argentine production were made this month despite private estimates for larger crops. For Brazil, this kept soybeans at 163 mmt and corn at 129 mmt. New crop production in Argentina was held at 48 mmt on soybeans and 54 mmt on corn. Argentine crops for this year were also unchanged with 34 mmt of corn and 25 mmt of soybeans. This year’s Brazilian soybean crop held at 156 mmt but the corn crop was bumped up to 135 mmt, 2 mmt more than last month.

U.S. beef production for 2023 was trimmed 180 million pounds this month to total 26.98 billion pounds. Beef production for 2024 was raised 470 million pounds for a yearly total of 25.17 billion pounds. Pork production was trimmed this month for 2023 by 110 million pounds for a 27.26 billion pounds total. Production for 2024 was left unchanged at 27.34 billion pounds. The average steer value is now at $185.50 per hundredweight and hogs are at $64.75 per hundredweight.

Beef exports for 2024 are now estimated at 2.97 billion pounds, down 20 million pounds from July and a large 244-million-pound reduction from 2023. Pork exports are forecast to total 6.98 billion pounds, steady with last month and 54 million pounds above the 2023 estimate. Beef imports are now projected at 3.56 billion pounds as consumer demand for lower grade cuts increases.

Prior to the USDA data release, the Brazilian group CONAB released their updated production forecasts. CONAB left their soybean crop estimate unchanged at 154.6 mmt as harvest is complete on that crop. CONAB upped its corn production forecast to 130 mmt from last month’s 127.8 mmt projection. This is from improved weather and elevated plantings on the Safrinha crop. These compare to last year’s crops of 125.5 mmt on soybeans and 113 mmt on corn. Current production numbers have been overshadowed recently by forecasts for larger crops for this coming year.

Even with record production, Brazilian farmers remain reluctant to make soybean sales. Brazilian farmers have currently sold 76 percent of their 2022/23 crop, down from 80 percent being sold a year ago and the average of 84 percent. Farmers are also slow to start marketing their 2023/24 crop with sales currently at 14 percent of production. Normally Brazilian farmers have sold 24 percent of their next crop by this time. Lower values have decreased interest in making sales, as has more interest on harvesting and marketing the country’s record corn crop.

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