Yearly farm income in the United States for 2023 is predicted at $141 billion, a 23% reduction from 2022. Cash crop income is forecast to decline 4% to total $267 million. Livestock returns are projected at $246.6 million, a year-to-year decline of 4.6%. These depressed values are forecast to carry over into 2024 as well. 

The official weather outlooks for the next 30 and 90 days has been released with warm and dry conditions expected across much of the United States. Nearly the entire Corn Belt is expected to see above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the rest of September. The forecast through December is calling for a continuation of elevated temperatures and normal precipitation. The question in the market is if this will hurt the finish of the crops or aid in an active harvest season. Outlook models indicate US farmers should be able to get a considerable amount of fall tillage done, and this tends to favor corn production the following year.

Even though the US harvest season is just getting underway trade is already starting to see interest on the crops that will be planted next spring. A recent survey shows US farmers will seed less corn and more soybeans this coming year as futures are giving soybeans an economic edge. According to collected data, US farmers will seed 93 million corn acres for the 2024/25 growing season compared to 94.1 million acres that were planted this year. Soybean acres are expected to total 85.4 million, up from this years 83.5 million planted acres. There are several factors that will ultimately impact these plantings, with weather and input costs being two primary ones. 

The price spread on corn and soybeans is becoming more of a focal point of the market as these planting decisions are made. At the present time the spread between December 2024 corn and November 2024 soybean contracts is 2.6:1. This means it takes 2.6 bushels of corn to equal the value on one bushel of soybeans. This does not really favor the production of one crop over the other. 

When it comes to price spreads there is more interest on the current price spread. Right now, the spread between corn and soybeans is at a seven-year high and favors soybean values. This is not too surprising as buyers are more concerned with securing enough soybeans to cover immediate needs. This difference may be short lived though as US farmers are expected to market more soybeans out of the field than corn as soybeans are above the current insurance floor while corn is below it. 

Russian officials have announced that they are working on establishing an alternative to the Black Sea corridor that expired last month. Russia is apparently willing to sell 1 million tons of grain at a discount to Turkey where it will then be processed and shipped to needy countries. The country of Qatar is expected to be helping finance this plan. There are no other details at this time, but trade questions the ability of this to provide much relief to those in need.   

A major unknown in the global commodity market remains Chinese import needs as they are the largest commodity trader in the global market. China is expected to import 100 million metric tons of soybeans this coming year which is in line with most recent years. Chinese soybean demand is expected to level off at this volume though as uses in the country are not expanding. 

The main source of soybean demand in China has been to crush for feed. Chinese officials have announced that diets are changing in the country and consumers are more interested in white meats such as fish and poultry. It takes much less protein for poultry feeding than it does to raise hogs which is limiting future meal needs. China’s population on a whole has started to decline which is also reducing food demand. 

Global soybean production is forecast to increase considerably this coming year as South America recovers from the La Nina weather event. Brazil soybean plantings are forecast to increase 3.6% to 112.3 million acres and produce a crop of 163 million metric tons (mmt). Argentine soybean plantings are forecast to rise 11.3% to total 41.2 million acres and produce a crop of 50 mmt. This is a combined increase to soybean production of 32 million metric tons, which is 7 million tons more than last year’s entire Argentine crop. 

Corn production is forecast to hold steady in Brazil at 133 mmt while Argentina will produce a 54 mmt crop. This is up nearly 20 mmt from this year’s drought stressed Argentine production. 

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