Only moderate alterations were made to the domestic corn balance sheets in the October WASDE report. The average U.S. corn yield was trimmed from 173.8 bushels per acre in the September report to an even 173 bushels an acre this month. This lowered the U.S. corn crop to 15.06 billion bu from last month’s 15.13 bbu estimate. The USDA also trimmed carry in from the 2022/23 marketing year by 90 million bu. Demand was lowered 50 mbu from cuts to exports and ethanol manufacturing. Ending stocks were lowered 110 mbu from September to 2.11 bbu, which is still an adequate corn supply. This left domestic stocks to use at 14.7 percent and an average cash price projection of $4.95 per bushel.

On soybeans, the USDA trimmed the average U.S. yield one-half a bushel to 49.6 bushels an acre. This is forecast to give the U.S. a 4.1 bbu soybean crop, 42 mbu less than the September projection. A portion of this was countered with an 18 mbu larger old crop carry in. The USDA raised its soybean crush estimate by 10 mbu this month but lowered its export forecast by 35 mbu. This will put soybean exports at 1.755 bbu for the 2023/24 marketing year, which is the lowest volume in several years. Soybean carryout was left unchanged this month at 220 mbu while trade was expecting an increase, which gave the market a positive reaction. The monthly soybean data was not necessarily bullish, but it was not bearish and with the funds mostly even this generated fresh buying. The current stocks to use on soybeans is at 5.2 percent, which is in a rationing position. The USDA left its cash outlook unchanged this month at $12.90 per bushel.

The commodity with the least friendly data in the October balance sheets was wheat. The USDA raised its average yield by 2.8 bpa to an average of 48.6 bpa. This will add 78 mbu to the U.S. crop and puts it at 1.81 bbu. Wheat imports were also raised by 5 mbu this month. The only change to demand was a 30 mbu increase in feed usage. These numbers netted a 54 mbu increase to ending stocks, putting them at 670 mbu. This is a 36 percent stocks to use and equates to an average bushel value of $7.30.

More changes were made to the world balance sheets and these had more of an influence on market values. World corn production is now estimated at 1.214 billion metric tons, 20 million metric tons more than the September estimate and an increase of 59.5 mmt on the year. Larger crops in the U.S., European Union, and Argentina are behind this. The Ukraine corn crop was also raised 1 mmt to total 28 mmt. The USDA did decrease the Brazil 2023/24 crop by 8 mmt. World ending stocks are now estimated at 312.4 mmt, down 1.5 mmt from last month.

The world soybean crop is now projected at 399.5 mmt, 1.8 mmt under the September number, but up 29 mmt from 2022/23. Smaller crop projections for the U.S. and India were offset by large increases to production in South America. Global soybean ending stocks were trimmed to 115.6 mmt this month from 119.25 mmt last month. This was also 4 mmt under the average trade guess and helped fuel the bullish move in the soy complex.

Global wheat production was projected at 783.4 mmt this month, down 3.9 mmt from last month and 6.1 mmt lower than last year. Production losses are predicted for Australia and Russia, while larger crops are forecast for the U.S. and Argentina. Global wheat ending stocks are now estimated at 258.13 mmt, down 500,000 mt from last month and 20 mmt under the average trade guess.

Beef production for 2023 was bumped s40 million pounds higher this month, putting it at 26.98 billion pounds. For 2024, beef production is now estimated at 25.28 billion pounds, a month to month increase of 110 million pounds. Beef exports for 2024 are projected at 2.845 billion pounds, down 55 million from last month and 189 million less than a year ago. Beef imports were raised by 60 million pounds and stand at 3.65 billion for the year. The USDA lowered its 2024 average steer value by 50 cents to $185.

Pork production for 2023 was elevated by 130 million pounds this month to 27.29 billion pounds. Production for 2024 was raised 560 million pounds to total 27.9 billion. Pork exports for 2024 were also elevated 50 million pounds and stand at 6.95 billion pounds. This is a year-to-year increase of 189 million pounds.

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