WASHINGTON, D.C. – Despite the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) casting a seemingly long shadow over U.S. poultry and egg farmers last year, turkey prices this year are dropping just in time for Thanksgiving, according to industry experts.

“Turkey supplies have recovered since the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak began,” said Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. “Due to the time it takes for poults placed on feed to be ready for market (about 14 weeks), poults must be placed on feed in July in order to be ready to market by Thanksgiving.”

According to the USDA’s September 2023 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, July 2023 turkey production was 432.3 million pounds.

“This is 9.7 percent above July 2022, but still about 6 percent below (pre-2022) outbreak levels, with 457.9 million pounds produced in July 2021,” Nelson said. “Much of the increase in production is attributed to live weights (the weight of a market-ready bird), rising 3.8 percent above last year, and higher processing numbers.”

He said the status of HPAI is much different now than it was just a year ago.

“Migratory birds are a major vector of this virus, which naturally makes spring and fall migration high-risk times,” he said. “Detections from the current outbreak peaked during March 2022, with 20.96 million birds affected before gradually falling to just 540 birds in September 2023.

“This can be compared to 8.15 million birds effected in September 2022,” he added. “June marked the first month with no detections since the outbreak began in February 2022.”

The USDA’s annual Turkeys Raised Report, released Sept. 27, estimated 219 million turkeys were raised in 2023, an increase of 4 percent from 2022, and 1 percent above pre-HPAI outbreak levels in 2021.

“This increase in the number of turkeys raised, along with strong placements of poults on feed in May and June, is a good indication of lower consumer prices ahead of Thanksgiving,” he said.

“Turkey prices gave consumers quite a shock in 2022,” he added. “Driven largely by inflation and the effects of the highly pathogenic avian influenza, prices reached a record $1.72 per pound for an 8-16-pound, frozen, Grade A, whole young hen; 20 percent higher than the previous year.”

He said these higher prices, caused by HPAI, induced supply depletion, led to lower demand, with the USDA estimating a decrease per capita demand of 2 percent in 2022, dipping from 14.9 pounds, per person, to 14.6 pounds per person.

“Average turkey prices in 2023 have fallen due to growth in production,” he said. “The average price for the 8-16-pound turkey typically served for Thanksgiving was $1.27 per pound in August 2023, 22 percent lower than August 2022.”

He said some of the more specialized products have come down even more since last year.

“Boneless, skinless, tom turkey breasts, for example, have declined by 61 percent from the near record $6.65 per pound, to $2.59 per pound in August 2023,” he said.

The September 2023 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast per capita demand for turkey to increase by 6 percent, to 15.5 pounds per person, in 2023 in response to lower prices.

Nelson said farmers and consumers alike should receive some turkey price relief for Thanksgiving.

“With very few highly pathogenic avian influenza detections, turkey and poultry supplies have recovered over the last year,” he said. “This means there is plenty of turkey – and the lower prices that come with strong supplies – to go around for Thanksgiving.”

Joel Brandenberger, president of the National Turkey Federation in Washington, D.C., told Farm World shoppers should find this Thanksgiving to be very similar to previous holidays.

“There will be a plentiful supply of turkeys in supermarkets, and most stores will feature very attractive price discounts, especially for frozen whole turkeys,” he said. “Supermarkets traditionally offer these discounts as an enticement for customers to do all their holiday meal shopping in one store.

“Because of these discounts, the economic factors that apply to most food items throughout the year are less of a factor in turkey pricing, but wholesale turkey prices generally have been declining since mid-May,” he added.

While the industry is still experiencing occasional cases of HPAI, he said losses this year are significantly lower than in 2022, and the disease will have no impact on the availability of Thanksgiving turkeys.

“The National Turkey Federation always recommends consumers who are looking for a specific size or type of whole turkey contact their store’s meat manager by early November to ensure they can get their preferred turkey,” he said.

“Purchasing a frozen turkey is always a good option as there’s really no difference in quality,” he added. “If stored in the freezer, the turkey should be defrosted in the refrigerator before cooking. Consumers should allow 24 hours of thawing in the refrigerator for every 4-5 pounds.”

Nelson said consumers can get full details about turkey prices and more when the American Farm Bureau Federation releases the results of its Annual Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Survey on Nov. 15.