The USDA surprised trade with larger production figures on the U.S. crops in the November supply and demand report. On the corn side, the USDA raised the average U.S. yield from 173 bushels per acre in October to 174.9 bpa this month. This put the crop size at 15.234 billion bu, up from last month’s 15.064 bbu. Trade was expecting a U.S. corn crop of 15.1 bbu.

On the demand side, total corn usage was raised 125 million bu as feed and residual was bumped up 50 mbu, ethanol was raised 25 mbu, and exports increased 50 mbu. Ending stocks on corn crept up to 2.156 bbu this month compared to 2.13 bbu in October. This left the corn complex with a stocks to use of 14.9 percent and an average cash value estimate of $4.85.

The average U.S. soybean yield was also raised from last month, putting it at 49.9 bpa compared to last month’s 49.6 bpa. This was enough to raise the soybean crop to 4.129 bbu, up from last month’s estimate of 4.1 bbu, which is what trade was expecting again this month.

The only usage adjustment on soybeans was a 1 mbu cut to seed demand. Ending stocks on soybeans were raised 25 mbu to total 245 mbu. The average trade guess on soybean carryout was 222 mbu. The stocks to use on soybeans crept up to 5.9 percent this month and the average cash value per bushel was left at $12.90.

On domestic wheat, the ending stocks were projected at 684 mbu, above the October estimate for 670 mbu and pre-report guesses of 669 mbu. The only adjustment on the demand side of wheat balance sheets was a 4 mbu reduction to food use. The stocks to use on wheat is set at 36.8 percent and the cash value is projected to average $7.20.

The USDA did not make any adjustments to Brazil or Argentine corn and soybean crops this month. They held Brazil’s crops at 163 million metric tons on soybeans and 129 mmt for corn. Argentine production held at 48 mmt on soybeans and 55 mmt for corn. These Argentine crops are almost double what the country produced last year. Wheat production in Argentina and Brazil was lowered, though, due to ongoing drought conditions. The reduction was a small 1.9 mmt, which was more than offset by an increase to the Russian crop of 5 mmt.

Moderate adjustments were also made to the world ending stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat. Global corn reserves this year are now estimated at 314.99 mmt, up from the October estimate of 312.4 mmt. The world wheat carryout increased slightly from October’s 258.13 mmt to this month’s 258.69 mmt. A small decline was seen in the world soybean ending stocks projection, with carryout trimmed 1.1 mmt to total 114.51 mmt.

The USDA made several adjustments to their beef and pork outlooks this month. On the beef side, production was trimmed 40 million pounds for 2023 at 26.93 billion pounds. For 2024, beef production was bumped up 540 million pounds to total 25.81 billion. Pork production was reduced by 70 million pounds for this year to 27.22 billion pounds. For 2024, the USDA cut pork production 160 million pounds to 27.73 billion. The average value on steers is projected at $177.30 per hundredweight for this year and $184.75 for 2024. Hog values are at $58.95 this year and $60.25 for 2024.

Beef and pork export figures for both years were little changed. Beef exports for 2023 were raised 1 million pounds to total 3.035 billion. The 2024 beef export estimate was unchanged at 2.845 billion pounds. Pork exports were cut 27 million pounds for 2023 at 6.734 billion pounds, and 2024 exports were held steady at 6.95 billion pounds. The beef import forecast was upped 36 million pounds for 2023 and 40 million pounds for 2024. This put yearly imports at 3.65 billion and 3.69 billion pounds, respectively.

Prior to the USDA data being released, the Brazilian firm CONAB released its own crop estimates. CONAB, which is similar to the USDA, projected the Brazil soybean crop at 162.42 mmt, up from their October estimate of 162 mmt. The firm’s corn production estimate came in at 119.07 mmt, down slightly from October’s 119.4 mmt projection. CONAB lowered the corn crop from thoughts there will be fewer harvested acres. Earlier this week, the USDA’s attaché in Brazil put the corn crop at 130 mmt.

A concerning bit of data for agriculture demand has been released, that being the U.S. trade balance on ag products. U.S. ag product exports in September totaled $12.73 billion. Imports for the month came in at $15.34 billion. This is the 5th consecutive month the US has posted an ag trade deficit.

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