MCHENRY, Ill. – The dryness that portions of North America have dealt with since 2020 will still be present this year, according to the president of World Weather, Inc.

If 2024 is similar to the last few years, that may not mean significant cuts in crop size, Drew Lerner said.

“It is very interesting to note that even though a large part of North America did have drought in the past few years, there hasn’t been a very big loss in production in key U.S. crop areas,” he noted. “Most of the drought has been most impactful on Canada, and at times in Mexico. Now we’ve had some issues in parts of the U.S. too, but it’s interesting to note how well U.S. crops have yielded these past couple of years while there’s been dryness around in parts of the Plains and Midwest.

“Now I know there’s exceptions to that but you know as well as I do that if this was 40 years ago, we would have a lot of problems with production across the country in the same scenario.”

Lerner offered kudos to scientists, biologists and agronomists who have developed new hybrids that are able to handle extreme weather. The long-time meteorologist spoke Jan. 23 during Allendale Inc.’s annual AgLeader Winter Conference Series.

Among the many factors that could influence weather this year is the weakening El Nino weather pattern, which has already peaked, Lerner said. Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center suggest the weather pattern should return to a more neutral condition by April.

The forecast maps are in agreement that there’s still dryness to deal with, which shouldn’t be a big surprise to anyone listening to the conference, he stated.

El Nino events in the past have tended to produce warmer than usual temperatures and lighter than usual precipitation across Canada’s prairies and the northern U.S. Plains during the December through February period, Lerner said. Snowfall tends to be lighter and less frequent than usual in El Nino winters across the Canadian prairies and especially in northern U.S. states. There tends to be more snowfall in the southern U.S. and especially in the west-central high Plains, he added.

Average seven-day topsoil moisture, ending Jan. 19, shows “the topsoil is saturated in many areas near and east of the Mississippi River and adequately moist in the west,” Lerner explained. “There’s still some pockets that could use greater moisture.”

As for his spring forecast for the region, Lerner is calling for near to below normal temperatures in Indiana, Ohio, most of Illinois, far eastern Iowa, northern Kentucky and southern Michigan. The rest of the region should have normal temperatures.

Precipitation will be near to above normal in Indiana, most of Illinois and Ohio, and in parts of northern Kentucky, and southern Michigan. The rest of Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio will see normal precipitation, as will parts of northern Tennessee and northern and eastern Iowa. The rest of Iowa and Tennessee will see near to below normal precipitation.

For June through August, temperatures are forecast to be normal in Michigan, Ohio and the northern half of Indiana. Most of Illinois, eastern Iowa, Kentucky and most of Tennessee will see near to above average temperatures. Western Iowa and the far western part of Tennessee will have above normal temperatures.

Precipitation in June through August will be normal in Ohio, Michigan, most of Indiana, northern Kentucky and parts of southern and eastern Tennessee. Most of Illinois will be near to below normal, as will the southwestern tip of Indiana. Most of Iowa, and the rest of Tennessee, along with the southern part of Kentucky, will have below normal precipitation.

Lerner said he wasn’t sure how the drier and warmer conditions he’s forecast might impact crops.

“It’s all about the timing of precipitation and the temperatures,” he said. “I don’t know that I can sit here and tell you today that we’re going to have crop failures, but it will be stressful for a while.”