Only minimal changes took place to the domestic corn balance sheets in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The USDA trimmed industrial corn demand by 10 million bu, which raised ending stocks to a comfortable 2.17 billion bu. This is an 812 mbu increase from last year and a stocks to use of 14.9 percent. The average U.S. cash corn price is now estimated at $4.80.

The only change in U.S. soybean balance sheets was a 35 mbu reduction on projected exports. This took the U.S. carryout to 315 mbu, while a steady figure was expected. The stocks to use on soybeans is now 7.6 percent and is above where rationing is needed. The average cash price projection on soybeans is $12.65.

Wheat balance sheet adjustments were also minimal with just 10 mbu being taken away from food demand. This put ending stocks at 658 mbu, which is a stocks-to-use ratio of 35.2 percent. The average cash wheat value is now projected at $7.20.

Global ending stocks were a little more changed on the month. The world corn carryover is now projected at 322.06 million metric tons, below the average trade estimate and down 3.16 mmt from January. World soybean ending stocks are now estimated at 116 mmt, 3.5 mmt more than expected and 1.4 mmt above the January estimate. World wheat ending stocks are forecast at 259.44 mmt, which was 1 mmt below trade guesses and down 560,000 mt from last month. Compared to 2023, world ending stocks are forecast to increase 22 mmt on corn and 12.5 mmt on soybeans but shrink 11.9 mmt for wheat.

The most interest in the report was on South American production, which was not surprising. Brazilian soybean production is now projected at 156 mmt, just 1 mmt less than forecast last month. The Brazilian corn crop is projected at 124 mmt, down 3 mmt from January. Argentine soybean production was left unchanged at 50 mmt, but the corn crop was reduced by 1 mmt to total 55 mmt. Weather is improving in South America which has many questioning if declines will be this great or not.

Only minimal changes took place to U.S. red meat balance sheets this month as well. Beef production for 2024 is now estimated at 26.19 billion pounds, an 80-million-pound increase from last month but 780 million pounds less than 2023’s production. Pork production for the year is forecast at 27.88 billion pounds. This is 90 million pounds less than forecast in January but 580 million more pounds than in 2023. The average steer price is now projected at $180 per hundredweight for 2024, $4.47 more than the average 2023 price. Hogs are forecast to average $59.75 per cwt in 2024, up $1.16 from 2023.

The lower beef production forecast is being reflected in lighter export projections. The U.S. is now expected to export 2.785 billion pounds of beef this year, 253 million fewer than in 2023. Pork exports are expected to increase 262 million pounds this year and total 7.08 billion pounds. Beef imports are expected to swell to 4.125 billion pounds, a year-to-year increase of 398 million pounds.

Prior to this data being released, the Brazilian group CONAB released its production estimates, trimming them on both corn and soybeans. CONAB is now predicting a Brazilian soybean crop of 149.4 mmt, down from the 155.27 mmt estimate that was released in January. The firm’s corn crop estimate is now at 113.7 mmt, down from last month’s 117.6 mmt projection. A loss of acreage and lower yield expectations are behind the smaller corn and soybean crop estimates, although several analysts in just the past week have changed their opinion on Brazilian plantings and have increased their crop estimates as a result. Brazil’s wheat crop is estimated at 10.2 mmt, up from last month’s 8.1 mmt projection.

The Census export data for the month of December has been released with mixed numbers. According to Census, the U.S. exported 189 mbu of corn in December, the largest volume for the month since 2007. This compares to November corn imports of 141 mbu and December 2022 at 143 mbu. U.S. soybean exports in December totaled 177 mbu, a five-month low. This volume compares to 274 mbu in November and 293 mbu in December 2022. Wheat exports for December totaled 55 mbu, up from 42 mbu in November and 41 mbu from last December.

Census also released its December red meat export totals. The U.S. exported 252.3 million pounds of beef in December, a four-month high and an increase of 10 percent from November. Pork exports in December were the second largest on record at 643.8 million pounds, a 6 percent increase from November.

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