STILLWATER, Okla. – Last month’s U.S. cattle herd totaled 87.2 million head, down two percent from January 2022, according to the Jan. 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report, released Jan. 31.

“The report confirms that the U.S. beef cattle industry continues to shrink,” Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University professor of agricultural economics, told Farm World, analyzing the report. “Inventories were smaller in all categories except for a year-over-year increase in cattle on feed. These results were expected, and the report was not a surprise in general.”

He said the changes in cattle inventories were generally close to pre-report estimates.

“However, there were several significant revision to 2023 inventories, so the absolute numbers were a little smaller than expected,” he said. “Cow and heifer slaughter in 2023 declined year over year but not enough to stop herd liquidation.

“Total female slaughter (cow heifer) in 2022 and 2023 were both greater than 51 percent of total cattle slaughter,” he added. “As a result, the 2024 beef cow herd is the smallest since 1961, and the all cattle and calves inventory is the smallest since 1951.”

Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee professor of agricultural and resource economics, told Farm World: “The report was very much in line with pre-report estimates. However, on the dairy side, softening prices for milk are likely what resulted in a few more cows going to slaughter in 2023, which resulted in a reduced herd number.

“I cannot say I was surprised at all,” he said. “It was clear all cattle and calves inventory was going to decline, compared to the previous year strictly due to cow slaughter, heifer slaughter, and the percentage of heifers on feed relative to the total number of animals on feed.

He said, “Dairy cattle inventory has remained fairly steady for several years, so most of the changes come on the beef cattle side. This is expected, given that most cows are on pasture, and the drought of 2023 put a whipping on producers in several states.

“The most important thing to note in my opinion is the smaller calf crop in 2023, relative to 2022,” he added. “The 2023 calf crop was 2.5 percent smaller than in 2022, which was 846,500 head. The focus is not necessarily the 2023 calf crop, but what the 2024 calf crop will look like.”

The report said in Indiana, all cattle and calves were 790,000 head, unchanged from last year. Beef cow numbers increased one percent to 180,000 head; beef replacement heifers increased seven percent to 32,000 head; milk cows increased two percent to 190,000 head; heifers for milk cow replacement increased six percent to 55,000 head; and the 2023 calf crop was 345,000 head, an increase of five percent from 2022.

In Illinois, all cattle and calves totaled 1 million head, up one percent from Jan. 1, 2023. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 410,000 head, are unchanged from a year ago. The 2023 calf crop was estimated at 355,000 head, up one percent from 2022.

In Michigan, all cattle and calves were 1.09 million head, down three percent from last year. Beef cow numbers remained unchanged at 101,000 head; beef replacement heifers increased five percent to 23,000 head; milk cows increased one percent to 439,000 head; heifers for milk cow replacement decreased one percent to 126,000 head; and the 2023 calf crop was 380,000 head, up three percent from 2022.

In Ohio, all cattle and calves were 1.24 million head, with no change from last year. Beef cow numbers increased two percent to 285,000 head; beef replacement heifers remained unchanged at 55,000 head; milk cows increased two percent to 255,000 head; heifers for milk cow replacement increased 10 percent to 110,000 head; and the 2023 calf crop was 480,000 head, up one percent from 2022.

In Kentucky, all cattle and calves were 1.89 million head, with total inventory down 20,000 head from last year. Cows and heifers that have calved were estimated at 950,000 million head, up 10,000 head from the 0.94 million for 2023. Beef cow inventory was estimated at 907,000 million head, and milk cows were estimated at 43,000 head.

In Tennessee, all cattle and calves were 1.6 million head, with total inventory down 80,000 head from last year. Cows and heifers that have calved were estimated at 860,000 head, down 20,000 head from the 880,000 for 2023. Beef cow inventory was estimated at 835,000 head, and milk cows were estimated at 25,000 head.

When asked what he forecasts between now and the July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report, Griffith said, “This is a tough one in that the spring calf crop will begin hitting the ground for most folks the next few months. Many of them will not begin making decisions on retaining heifers until this fall.

“I do expect there will be interest in breeding females if prices remain high like they are today,” he added. “Producers will be slow to jump in on these females until they know they have adequate spring and summer grazing, and there is a descent quantity of hay in storage.”

To read the entire Jan. 1 report, visit: www.nass.usda.gov. The July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report is slated to be released July 31.