The USDA has released its ag export revenue forecast for 2024. The USDA has the value of 2024 ag exports at $170.5 billion, a $1 billion increase from its November prediction. A decline in soybean and product export income is expected, but these are anticipated to be offset by larger sales of other commodities. Soybean and soy product exports are forecast to generate $36.2 billion in revenue, a decline of $1 billion. Grain export returns are pegged at $38.2 billion, an increase of $700 million. Beef export income has been raised $700 million and pork exports to increase $600 million. 

China is forecast to be the largest buyer in 2024 with a projected $28.7 billion in purchases, although this is an $800 million decline from 2023. 

Chinese officials have released their import data on corn and soybeans and verified a sizable shift in where needs are sourced from. In the first two months of 2024 China imported 6.19 million metric tons of corn. Of this, 4.1 mmt came from Brazil, a yearly increase of 178%. US corn exports to China only totaled 767,000 metric tons to start the year, a 67% decrease from last year. 

One of the most debated topics in today’s market remains safrinha acres in Brazil. Several analysts are using a low acreage number in their safrinha estimate due to weather conditions at the start of the planting season. One of these is CONAB who lowered their planting estimate by 7.6% from last year. Weather in Brazil has improved since planting started though, and now analysts in the country believe any reduction to safrinha plantings will be much less than initially predicted. These individuals believe safrinha plantings will be large enough to absorb a 5% loss in yield and still generate a larger corn crop than current projections indicate. 

What is most notable about the safrinha crop this year is the early and rapid planting of the crop. The planting on safrinha this year has run 20% faster than last year given the fast harvest pace on Brazil’s soybean crop. This will allow the safrinha crop to mature without being subjected to the late growing season weather which is known for stressing crops. This is further supporting ideas the safrinha crop will be larger than forecast. This is being heavily monitored by global corn importers, as the safrinha crop is where nearly all of Brazil’s corn exports come from. 

A story out of the livestock complex that has caught trade attention is that China has opted to let its tariffs on Brazil poultry imports expire. China has been placing tariffs on Brazilian poultry since 2019 to counter what the Chinese government claimed was “dumping” by Brazil. Dumping is when a large volume of commodities are sold at a highly discounted value into a market. These are normally below the fair market value of the commodity and can be below the cost of production. These Chinese tariffs ranged from 18% to 34%. 

Chinese officials have also released a statement that they will lower the country’s sow herd capacity to 39 million head. This is down from the current sow herd capacity target of 41 million head. Chinese officials are hoping that this move will trim the country’s hog herd and support prices. China over-built its hog herd following heavy losses from African Swine Fever, and at the same time, pork demand in China has dropped. This is mainly from changes to the Chinese diet with consumers wanting more beef in their diets. The current sow population in China is reported at 40.4 million head, which is down 7% from a year ago. 

The Chinese government has announced plans to provide additional funding to expand the country’s commodity production and storage capacity. 

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