The updated June acreage data for corn was bearish for the complex. The USDA raised its planted corn acreage estimate for this year to 91.5 million and its harvested acreage to 83.4 million. This is a 3 percent reduction from last year’s 94.6 million planted and 86.5 million harvested acres for corn. This is the 8th highest corn acreage on record since 1944. Corn acreage is expected to be down in 31 of the 48 main corn producing states. Using the revised harvested acres and a current yield estimate of 181 bushels per acre point to a 15.1 billion bu crop, 240 million bu more than the current USDA projection.

Soybean plantings are now estimated at 86.1 million acres, up 3 percent from last year’s 83.6 million, but 650 million fewer than expected and 410 million less than the March prediction. Soybean acreage was up this year in 24 of the 29 main producing states.

Total wheat acreage in the U.S. was pegged at 47.2 million in the June report, 460 million fewer than trade was expecting and 300 million less wheat acres than the March estimate. This is also 5 percent fewer wheat acres than the U.S. planted last year.

It is interesting to note that when the planting data was collected for this report, U.S. farmers still had 3.36 million corn and 12.8 million soybean acres left to seed. Given this volume of unplanted acres and recent weather in the Western Corn Belt, it would not be surprising to see the USDA resurvey acres this summer. The Farm Service Agency acreage data that will be released in August will give us a much better indication of actual plantings.

On the inventory side, quarterly stocks were all up a sizable volume from last year. Corn stocks on June 1, 2024, were 4.99 bbu, an increase of 22 percent from June 1, 2023. Of this volume, 3.03 bbu was stored on-farm, an increase of 37 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.97 bbu, a year-to-year increase of 4 percent. While corn stocks are up on the year, demand was not the issue. Corn usage in the quarter totaled 3.36 bbu compared to last year’s 3.29 bbu.

U.S. soybean reserves on June 1 totaled 970 mbu, an increase of 22 percent from last year’s 796 mbu. On-farm soybean reserves totaled 466 mbu, an increase of 44 percent from a year ago. Off-farm soybean stocks were reported at 504 mbu, up 6 percent on the year. March to May soybean consumption was down 2 percent from 2023 at 875 mbu.

The total of all wheat supplies on June 1 came in at 702 mbu, a year-to-year increase of 23 percent. On-farm wheat stocks totaled 139 mbu, an increase of 12 percent. Off-farm wheat stocks were 563 mbu, a yearly increase of 27 percent. Wheat disappearance came in at 387 mbu, a 4 percent increase from 2023.

The U.S. soy industry received some bullish news from the latest monthly biofuel demand data. For March, U.S. renewable and biodiesel production totaled 414 million gallons. This was an increase of 6.7 percent from February and a three-month high. What was most positive is that soy oil usage for this fuel production was up 8 percent from March 2023. Marketing year to date soy oil inclusion in renewable fuel manufacturing is up 11 percent from last year’s rate.

The National Oilseed Processors Association crush report for May showed record soybean demand for the month. NOPA members, who account for 95 percent of U.S. soybean processors, crushed 183.63 million bu of soybeans in May. This was above most trade guesses and an 8.4 percent increase from April. The increase in soybean crush was the result of plants coming back online following spring maintenance. This level of crush was also 3.2 percent greater than May 2023, which was the previous monthly record at 178 mbu.

Even with this record crush, soy oil reserves held steady from April to May. NOPA members reported an end of May soy oil inventory of 1.72 billion pounds. This was below trade estimates and down from the 1.75-billion-pound inventory at the end of April. Elevated demand from the biofuel industry is credited for the steady soy oil reserves as inclusion of soy oil in manufacturing blends is increasing.

An interesting story is developing in the U.S. biofuel market. For several months we have heard debate surrounding the import of used cooking oil for renewable fuel production, and how Chinese product may be artificially tainted rather than actual used oil. Now we are hearing of beef tallow imports from Brazil and how these are also competing for a share of the U.S. renewable fuel market. U.S. beef tallow imports from Brazil for the first four months of 2024 are 377 percent greater than last year.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.