For once, we did see moderate changes to the U.S. corn balance sheets in the July update. For the 2023/24 marketing year, the USDA bumped imports up 5 million bu, but also raised feed and residual usage and exports by 75 mbu each to trim the U.S. carryout by 145 mbu. This put the U.S. carryout for this year at 1.877 billion bu. This is a 12.6 percent stocks to use and equates to a cash value of $4.65 per bushel.

For the 2024/25 marketing year we saw production bumped up 240 mbu from the increase to corn acreage from the June planting revisions, which was partially offset by the lower old crop carryin. The USDA also increased new crop ethanol demand by 75 mbu and exports by 25 mbu, to give us a 5 mbu decrease to ending stocks. This put carryout at 2.1 billion bu, a 14.1 percent stocks to use. This puts the average new crop bushel value at $4.30 per bushel.

World corn balance sheets were mixed. For the 2023/24 marketing year, corn carryout was estimated at 309.13 million metric tons, down from 312.39 mmt in June. For the 2024/25 marketing year, corn carryout was bumped up to 311.64 mmt from last month’s 310.77 mmt.

Changes to the domestic soybean balance sheets were minimal this month. Old crop soybean imports were trimmed 5 mbu, which was the only change to demand, giving us a carryout of 345 mbu. This is an 8.4 percent stocks to use and points towards an average bushel value of $12.50. New crop soybean production was trimmed 15 mbu from the lower acreage estimate in the June plantings revisions. This combined with a 5 mbu reduction to imports to put new crop ending stocks at 435 mbu. The stocks to use on new crop soybeans is now 10 percent and puts the average cash value at $11.10.

On the global side, the world soybean carryout estimate for this marketing year was steady at 111.25 mmt. For the 2024/25 marketing year, soybean carryout is forecast to increase to 127.76 mmt, which is just under the June estimate of 127.9 mmt.

The most changes in balance sheets took place in wheat this month. For the 2023/24 marketing year, which is over on wheat, carryout was estimated at 702 mbu today. This was a 15 mbu increase from June due to a 3 mbu reduction to feed usage and 13 mbu less exports, although we did see a slight decline in final wheat imports of 2 mbu.

For the 2024/25 marketing year, production was bumped up 134 mbu from an increase in yield of 2.4 bushels per acre to an average of 51.8 bushels per acre. On the demand side, feed and residual increased 10 mbu and exports were raised 25 mbu for a net increase to ending stocks of 98 mbu. This leaves carryout at 856 mbu and stocks to use at 43.7 percent, the highest it has been in five years. The average new crop wheat cash price estimate is $5.70 per bushel.

The 2023/24 world wheat carryout estimate was steady from last month at 260.99 mmt, up 500,000 from June. Global wheat carryout for the 2024/25 marketing year is expected to decline to 257.24 mmt, which is a 5 mmt increase from the June projections.

The USDA made several changes to its red meat balance sheets this month. For beef, 2024 production increased 70 million pounds to 26.65 billion pounds, and bumped 2025 production up 100 million pounds to total 25.47 billion pounds. Pork production increased 40 million pounds for 2024 to total 28.14 billion pounds. Next year’s pork production is forecast to be 28.55 billion pounds, up 150 million pounds from June.

 The USDA increased beef exports for 2024 by 90 million pounds, putting them at 2.9 billion. Pork exports for 2024 were trimmed by 115 million pounds, leaving them at 7.25 billion pounds. No changes were made to the 2025 export forecasts, holding beef at 2.5 billion pounds and pork at 7.62 billion pounds. Beef imports for this year were lowered by 25 million pounds to 4.146 billion and left unchanged for 2025 at 4.22 billion pounds.

The average steer value for 2024 is estimated at $186.86 per hundredweight, and at $190.50 per cwt for 2025. On hogs, the average prices are forecast at $59.13 per cwt for this year and $58.75 a cwt for next year.

While this data is still fresh, trade is already looking forward to the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, as these will be the first to contain field collected data from across the United States. Yearly reports to this date have just used historical trends and probabilities to forecast U.S. production. This seasonal change in data sources will give us more accurate production data.

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