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August cheese production was up but milk took a dip 
 
Mielke Market Weekly
By Lee Mielke
 
 August milk production was off just 0.1 percent from a year ago, but milk components were up again and the August Dairy Products report shows the results.
Total cheese production climbed to 1.198 billion pounds, up 0.5 percent from July and up 1.7 percent from Aug. 2023. Year to date output hit 9.5 billion, up 0.6 percent from 2023.
Italian cheese output totaled 499.1 million pounds, up 0.6 percent from July and 3.1 percent above a year ago. Year to date production totaled 4.0 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent.
American output inched up to 477.8 million pounds, up 1.8 percent from July but 0.3 percent below a year ago. YTD, at 3.8 billion pounds, was down 4.0 percent from 2023.
Mozzarella, at 399.7 million pounds, was up 4.7 percent from a year ago, with YTD output at 3.2 billion pounds, up 4.4 percent.
Cheddar output jumped to 322.0 million pounds, up 10.4 million or 3.3 percent from July’s output which was revised 2.7 million pounds lower, but was down 3.4 million pounds or 1.0 percent, from a year ago. YTD Cheddar stood at 2.6 billion pounds, down 7.0 percent from a year ago.
Butter production slipped to 159.0 million pounds, down 5 million pounds or 3.0 percent from July output, which was revised up 2.3 million pounds, but was up an impressive 20.1 million pounds or 14.5 percent from a year ago. YTD butter was at 1.5 billion pounds, up 5.3 percent from 2023.
Yogurt production totaled 423.3 million pounds, up 7.7 percent from a year ago, with YTD output at 3.3 billion, up 4.5 percent.
Hard ice cream, at 69.3 million pounds, was up 5.9 percent from 2023. YTD, 504.9 million pounds had been produced, up 2.6 percent from a year ago.
Dry whey output slipped to 65.5 million pounds, down 2.2 million pounds or 3.2 percent from July, and was down 18.1 million or 21.6 percent from a year ago. YTD whey was at 593.8 million pounds, down 7.7 percent.
Whey stocks fell up to 59.2 million pounds, down 4.5 million or 7.2 percent from July, and down 28.6 million pounds or 32.6 percent from a year ago.
Nonfat dry milk output fell to 114.6 million pounds, down 6.4 million or 5.3 percent from July, but was up 2.5 million pounds or 2.2 percent from a year ago. YTD NFDM was at 1.2 billion pounds, down 14.6 percent.
Stocks fell to 260.7 million pounds, down 9.1 million, or 3.4 percent from July, and were down 1 million pounds or 0.4 percent from 2023.
Skim milk powder production slipped to 50.3 million pounds, down 1.3 million pounds or 2.4 percent from July, and down 21 million or 29.4 percent from a year ago. YTD SMP was at 361.5 million pounds, down 17.5 percent from 2023.
Much of the whey stream was again directed to whey protein concentrates and isolates, leaving less for dryers, according to the Daily Dairy Report. “Production of WPC with 50 percent to 89.9 percent protein topped August 2023 volumes by 4.4 percent, while WPI output leapt 35.1 percent above year-ago levels,” according to the DDR.
Meanwhile, CME cheese prices continued to fall the second week of October. The Cheddar blocks were trading Thursday morning at $1.93 per pound, down 34.50 cents from where they were three and a half weeks ago.
The barrels were at $1.8650, 72.50 cents lower than where they were just two and a half weeks ago, and 6.50 cents below the blocks.
Midwest cheesemakers had varying demand reports. Some are steadily moving loads, particularly those in pizza cheese, Cheddar and hard Italian cheese markets. Makers of other types say their customers have quieted seasonally. Barrel processors say any extra loads available in recent weeks have been spoken for. Barrels are far from loose in the Midwest, says DMN, despite the bearish prices. Milk availability also remains somewhat snug, with mid-week prices remaining at or near previous levels, 50 cents to $2-over Class III. Plant downtime, which has been a regular occurrence for much of the summer, is still being reported but more are running regular to active schedules, says DMN.
Class III milk demand from western cheese manufacturers is steady. Bottling demand is seasonally higher, but cheesemakers have the milk they need. Cheese production is strong to steady, with some running close to full capacity. Demand varies from steady to lighter. Some sellers convey buyers have become more hesitant due to the bearish prices the last few weeks.
Cash butter gained 2.50 cents Monday but headed lower from there, and was trading Thursday at $2.64 per pound. There were 22 loads traded on Wednesday and another 30 on Thursday.
Butter markets have taken a notably bearish turn and Central butter makers are aware of it and some expect the bears to remain for the near-term, says DMN. Food service demand is moving along in the busier baking season, but buyers are awaiting potentially further price decreases before adding to stocks. Churning is busy and some say it’s the busiest it has ever been during the first weeks of the autumn season. Cream is ample. Some plants were turning down cream offers for the third consecutive week as they are and have been at capacity.
Retail butter production varies from strong to steady in the West. Bulk butter production is more mixed, with some running more heavily than typical due to significant churn equipment projects slotted to take place during fourth quarter. Cream is generally available throughout the region for butter makers. Domestic demand is mixed but cream sales to buyers across the border have strengthened. Butter manufacturers note domestic demand is steady to lighter and international demand is steady to stronger, according to DMN.
Grade A nonfat dry milk was at $1.3525 per pound Thursday and dry whey at 60 cents per pound.
August U.S. dairy exports were up for the third consecutive month, up 2 percent from August 2023, but were smaller than August 2022 and 2021, according to HighGround Dairy, “indicating that international demand remains subdued.”
Cheese sailings totaled 93.6 million pounds, up 14.8 percent, “historically high,” says HGD, and “Surpassing 90 million pounds for the fifth time this year,” though Cheddar exports were down 26.2 percent. Cheese shipments increased to Mexico and South Korea, with growing interest from regions in Latin America, United Arab Emirates, and the Philippines, according to HGD.
The Daily Dairy Report says “The U.S. sent more cheese south of the border in January through August than it did in all of 2022 and all years before that.”
Nonfat/skim milk powder exports totaled 149.9 million pounds, down 1.1 percent following significant exports of nonfat dry milk in July. August’s values fell 6 percent month over month, says HGD, however NDM trade has been weak throughout 2024, and August’s total remains the second-highest of the year. 
Dry whey exports, at 35.7 million pounds, were up 14.1 percent from a year ago, the third consecutive month to top year ago levels, despite a 12.8 percent drop in purchases from China.
Butter exports, at 6.1 million pounds, were up 16.4 percent from a year ago, however butter imports remained at record levels, hitting 14.2 million pounds.

10/16/2024